From Behind in the Stretch

Remember Silky Sullivan? A big, chestnut, three-year-old colt in 1958, he had a breathtaking way of staying 25 or 30 lengths behind and then, in the stretch, thundering up on the leaders while thousands roared, "Here comes Silky Sullivan." He didn't always make it, of course, but that made little difference in California, where they love a come-from-behind stretch runner.

That's the way it is coming into the stretch for California's June 2 Republican presidential primary. In their two-man race, Arizona's Barry Goldwater still seems ahead, but New York's Nelson Rockefeller, like Silky Sullivan, is roaring up on the outside.

Added to the Agenda. Fresh from his Oregon upset, Rocky was running as though there were no tomorrow. His chartered bus rolled over California freeways at speeds of 65 to 75 m.p.h., taking him from speech to luncheon to reception. His crowds were large and enthusiastic; he could have yelled "Fresh fish!" and received cheers. About 7,000 people lined up for three blocks outside a reception at the Disneyland Hotel to wait their turn for a quick Rockefeller handshake. At a senior citizens' center in Stockton, he charmed the oldsters when he stirred his coffee with the stems of his spectacles, danced with half a dozen of the women. His schedule grew by the hour as he insisted on adding to his already overcrowded itinerary. One day's schedule, for example, listed six stops when it was issued early in the morning; within a few hours it had been revised to 18.

Wherever he went, Rocky attacked the Johnson Administration's confusing array of "120 foreign policies," and called for "hot pursuit" of Viet Cong guerrillas into North Viet Nam and Laos. But it was another message that Rocky really wanted to get across: "Like Abraham Lincoln and Dwight Eisenhower," he said time and again, he represented "the mainstream of American thought"--while Barry was way off to the right.

Kidding Themselves. For his part, Goldwater left California early last week. On his way to Washington he stopped off at tiny Fredonia, Ariz. (pop. 643), which he calls his "lucky town" and where he has spoken every year since 1950. To Rocky's charge that he stands apart from the American "mainstream," Barry snorted: "I'm up to my neck in it." Goldwater himself still appears confident, but his followers are increasingly worried. Says his campaign coordinator, Denison Kitchel: "We've got a real battle on our hands. We're kidding ourselves if we think we don't." To help out, the Goldwater forces enlisted the aid of 23 U.S. Congressmen from 18 states to barnstorm California on Barry's behalf this week. And under urging, Goldwater reluctantly announced that he would spend all this week in the state, instead of the three days he originally had planned.

Heavy Spending. For his come-from-behind effort against Goldwater, Rocky has the benefit of a well-paid reasonably smooth-working, professional organization headed by Spencer-Roberts, a crack California public relations outfit. The Rockefeller people were planning to pour upwards of $1,000,000 into the last days of the campaign for radio and television time, direct mailing and the like. Rockefeller also is sending scores of workers into Negro areas from San Francisco to Los Angeles in an attempt to get out the presumably anti-Goldwater Negro vote.

Goldwater, too, is spending up to $1,000,000 in the closing days of the campaign. But he has a couple of advantages over Rocky. For one thing, he is much better known in California. Since 1958, Goldwater backers point out, he has made at least 500 speeches there on his own behalf and for other Republican candidates. His organization is less professional than Rocky's, but more zealous. In San Diego County, for example, 26 separate Goldwater volunteer headquarters are at work; Los Angeles County numbers no fewer than 42 headquarters. By election eve, Goldwater workers vow that they will have reached every registered Republican in the state with at least one mailing, a phone call and a visit from a Goldwater precinct worker.

On Rockefeller's side is the momentum he achieved in his Oregon primary win, plus the fact that supporters of Henry Cabot Lodge have come out for him. Lodge is popular in California, but just how many of his admirers will vote for Rocky remains open to question; Pollster Sam Lubell last week figured that about three out of five of them will follow the Lodge leaders' suggestion. As for the other pollsters, they seem to be in a tailspin. Just before Oregon, California's Field Poll gave Goldwater 43% to Rocky's 27%; Oregon surely narrowed that gap, and the Field Poll is now conducting a new survey. Pollster Lou Harris, who underrated Rockefeller in Oregon by 6%, was not about to underrate him again. In a poll taken shortly before Oregon, Harris called it Goldwater 55% to Rockefeller's 45% ; in a post-Oregon poll he did a massive flipflop, called it Rockefeller 57% to Goldwater's 43%.

The Questions. In the final event, Rockefeller will probably run strong in northern California, especially in the well-heeled suburbs of the San Francisco Bay area. But southern California is Goldwater country, and the Rocky forces believe that to have a chance they must hold Barry to a 200,000 margin in Los Angeles County, San Diego County and Orange County.

Can they do it? Can Nelson Rockefeller come from far behind, like Silky Sullivan? Obviously, nobody really knows. But that's what makes horse races.

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