Socialists Gaining

After 30 years in the political wilder ness, West German Socialists excitedly glimpsed the Promised Land -- victory in next year's national elections. The chances are still limited, but they are better than ever before.

To the party convention delegates gathered in Karlsruhe last week, all the indices looked good. Their leaders had transformed a blue-collar, militant workers' movement into a broad-based, respectable middle-class party that hard ly ever mentions Marx. Alone or in coalition, Socialists now rule five of West Germany's eleven states and 48 of the nation's biggest cities. In Septem ber they scored impressive gains in local elections in the Saar and Rhineland, whose formerly hostile Catholic populations know that the "new" Socialists have abandoned their attacks on the church. The latest national public opin ion poll gives the Socialists a 7% lead over the ruling Christian Democrats.

The Socialists admit that in all this they have been helped by their political foes; the Christian Democratic Party these days seems bent on tearing itself apart.

Economic Dilemmas. Most of the tearing is being done by the party's "Gaullist" wing, headed by venerable ex-Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, 88, and beefy ex-Defense Minister Franz Josef Strauss, 49, who favor De Gaulle's vision of a Europe independent of the U.S. in nuclear and other matters. They are opposed by the dominant "Atlanti-cist" wing, led by Chancellor Ludwig Erhard and his Foreign Minister, Gerhard Schroder, who favor the U.S. -proposed multilateral force (MLF) and close as sociation with Washington.

The fight is as much personal as po litical. Adenauer has always been dis dainful of plump, amiable Erhard, and lately Erhard's leadership has indeed faltered. He has not been able to over come his party's divisions, and he is troubled by several economic dilemmas.

He will have to lower German grain prices to meet Common Market lev els, a move which Germany's inefficient, subsidized farmers dread. Proclaiming an attack on inflationary spending, Er hard chose to make his stand by refusing to grant increased benefits to war victims, and was later forced to back down. After appealing for moderation to the public, Erhard then infuriated everyone by raising telephone rates --and again backed down.

Unrocked Boat. Against this, the Socialists are trying to project an image of unity and reason. At Karlsruhe, the party formally came out for the multilateral force. As for the choice between France and the U.S., the Socialists are already on record as depending upon the U.S. for the defense of Europe and the eventual reunification of Germany. In short, the Socialists are promising that, if elected, they will not rock the boat but merely run it more efficiently than the Christian Democrats.

For all his troubles, Erhard's personal popularity and deserved reputation as the father of German prosperity remain immense. Regardless of party standing, the polls still favor Erhard as Chancellor over Socialist Leader Willy Brandt. A vigorous mayor of West Berlin, Brandt simply lacks the stature of a national leader, a fact that the Karlsruhe convention recognized when, in drawing up its election program, it emphasized the party more than the man. The convention also appointed a "shadow Cabinet" of able technicians to show the electorate that the Socialists have more to offer than just Brandt.

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