Warning Signals

THE NATIONS

Shortly before the Alianza para el Progreso was proclaimed in 1961, Thomas C. Mann, the U.S. State Department's ranking expert on Latin America, glumly compared the area to "a pile of sugar being eaten away by a fire hose." Much of the erosion has since been halted. The Alianza has made considerable progress in developing economies, while Castro has been ex posed as a bungling adventurer. The Brazilian revolution ended the drift to Communism under a feckless leftist President; Chile averted the same fate in a head-to-head election in which the Christian Democrats' Eduardo Frei won an overwhelming victory; Mexico continues its boom under the able Gustavo Diaz Ordaz; and long-turbulent Peru is enjoying a rare peace and prosperity under Fernando Belaunde Terry (TIME cover, March 12).

Yet the explosion in the Dominican Republic serves as an urgent reminder that there are still many countries where poverty, Red agitation, corrupt and in efficient government are pressing dangers. Last week civil war flared in Bolivia, leftist riots continued in Colombia, and several other governments were flashing warning signals.

>In ARGENTINA, President Arturo Illia stumbles from one crisis to another.

The country's beef and wheat economy is in chaos, $600 million in foreign debts fall due this year with no way to pay, and the country's 3,000,000 followers of exiled Dictator Juan Peron have just won enough congressional seats to threaten government legislation. Argentina's violently anti-Peron military is again growing restless. "The position of the armed forces," commented a war ministry colonel, "is hardening."

>In ECUADOR, opposition is mounting rapidly against the well-meaning but often heavyhanded four-man military junta -- even within the military. Three weeks ago, after the junta decreed a series of stiff tariff increases, Guayaquil merchants went on a seven-day protest strike, immobilizing the country's industrial capital. The junta declared martial law, sent in troops to end the strike, and packed some 70 people off to jail, including two key air force officers who apparently sided with the civilians. The situation is not likely to be eased by forecasts of a 40% drop in 1965 banana exports because of increased Central American and Asian competition.

>In VENEZUELA, the oil-fueled economy continues to grow stronger, but President Raul Leoni's soldiers are having trouble with the Castroite FALN guerrillas, who have now spread into eight of the country's 20 states. Last year the Castroites were content to play hide-and-seek with the army. Now they are growing bolder, recently ambushed an army patrol near the Maracaibo oilfields, killing three soldiers and wounding 17.

>In GUATEMALA, Castroite terrorists have been exploding bombs, killing policemen and invading small towns with worrisome frequency. The latest outrage was the machine-gun murder two weeks ago of the country's Vice Minister of Defense. Colonel Enrique Peralta Azurdia, head of the country's two-year-old junta, has declared a state of siege, and is considering postponing the presidential election promised for fall.

>In URUGUAY, that staunch but unstuck little island of welfare-statism, the economy is reeling from the effects of a 26-day blackout of its banking system. The government ordered five banks to close, and all others went out on strike after charges of corruption and fraud against eleven top banking executives. Last week even the Central Bank itself was intervened for investigation. To add to the troubles, the country's cost of living has jumped 45% in the past year, the ruling, nine-man National Council has split into bickering factions, and Communists operating out of the Soviet embassy are busily issuing calls to revolution.

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