The Fragile Stability

In Africa, political stability is a thin veneer that can flake off with the slightest scratch of a military finger. Since mid-December, three black governments* have been toppled by military coup. For a while last week Nigeria seemed on its way to becoming the fourth. What makes Nigeria different is that it is no tiny tinhorn republic. It is the continent's most populous nation (56 million people), its economy is one of Africa's most prosperous, and--with 250 tribes and tongues--it has long been considered one of Africa's most democratic and stable countries.

But beneath the surface, Nigeria has long been roiled by fierce tribal undercurrents, originating from its four fiercely proud regions: the dominant Moslem North, where more than half the country's people live, the oil-rich Eastern area, and the more industrialized (asbestos and textiles) Western and Midwestern regions. Prime Minister Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa's ruling National Nigerian Alliance (N.N.A.) draws its strength from the North, and the opposition United Progressive Grand Alliance (U.P.G.A.) is powerful in the rest of the country.

In last October's Western Region parliamentary elections, the N.N.A. rather blatantly rigged the ballot boxes. Many opposition candidates were scrubbed from the ballot; key election officials were kidnaped. In the final "official" count by the Western Region's pro-North government, the N.N.A. finished with 74 of Parliament's 94 seats.

City Under Siege. That was too much for the opposition, and off it went on a violent rampage that has flared sporadically ever since. Homes, shops and autombiles were put to the torch, and hundreds of pro-North sympathizers were tortured and killed. Last week, when Commonwealth nations gathered in Nigeria's seaport capital of Lagos to discuss the Rhodesia question, they found a city under siege. Extra police patrolled the downtown area, and roads were littered with charred automobiles. Then, shortly after Prime Minister Harold Wilson arrived back in England, all cable, telephone and radio communications out of Nigeria suddenly blinked off.

What happened after that, no one could be sure. When a few radios crackled back on the air, their broadcasts were filled with conflicting reports that changed from hour to hour. According to one, a single unnamed army general from the North had launched a coup "to bring an end to gangsterism and disorder." The premiers of both the Northern and Western regions were reported assassinated, and Sir Abubakar was said to be under house arrest.

Later reports indicated that General Aguiyu Ironsi, chief of Nigeria's army, had remained loyal to the government.

* Dahomey, Dec. 22; Central African Republic, Jan 1; Upper Volta, Jan. 3.

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