Quite the Contrary & Above All

Brazilians have always reveled in their genius for getting themselves into impossible predicaments, complicating the predicaments beyond belief, and then scrambling out of them at the last possible second not only unscathed but refreshed. They are the masters of the fearless retreat, the intransigent com promise, the edged hedge and the artful fix. No belief is so rigid that it cannot be reversed, no enemy so hated that he cannot be embraced. Revolutions are accomplished by collect telegram, prosperity by printing more money, and politics is riding a bandwagon. Absolutely nothing in Brazil is absolute. As a Brazilian Congressman once announced: "My party stands neither for nor against this issue. Quite the contrary. And above all."

In the Arena. Thus it was last week under the democratic dictatorship of Marshal (retired) Humberto Castello Branco, 65, leader of the 1964 military revolution which aimed to clean up Brazilian politics once and for all. In Brazilian terms, the predicament was relatively simple. Castello Branco had annulled the nation's 13 fractious political parties, ordered them to join hands to form two new ones: a government party called Arena (for National Renovation Alliance) and a loyal opposition party called Modebras (for Brazilian Democratic Movement).

Naturally, few sane Brazilian politicians dreamed of going to elections in Modebras, and so many tried to jump into the Arena that Castello Branco had to appeal to their public patriotism to get an opposition party at all.

But there were complications. Castello Branco, who is honest and, for a general, fairly liberal, shares control of the Brazilian army with his hard-lining, hard-living war minister, General Artur Costa e Silva. The two men have never quarreled in public, but they have seldom agreed in private, and when Costa e Silva announced his candidacy for this year's presidential elections, eyebrows went up all over Brazil. At first there was speculation that Costa e Silva, who neither understands nor sympathizes with the government's attempts to stabilize the economy, might run as candidate for the opposition. Nonsense. The old war horse soon made it clear that he wants to be the candidate.

Temporary Compromise. That, of course, put Castello Branco in a fix. He had already declared himself out of the running, and so he began to look around for a presidential candidate who would continue the economic reforms that Costa e Silva resists. Now there was a new twist that only a Brazilian could properly savor: the President himself recruiting a candidate to run against his own government party. Not only that, but since Castello Branco has already decreed that the President is to be elected by Congress instead of by popular vote, and since Castello Branco controls Congress, he could presumably defeat Costa e Silva. It would be a simple matter. At presidential instructions, the government Congressmen would vote for the opposition candidate, leaving the opposition minority no choice but to vote for the government candidate --or be accused of disloyalty to democratic principles.

All of that reckoned without Brazil's real source of political power, the army. And the army, unwilling to see its two heroes openly divided, forged a temporary compromise. After contact with at least three potential opposition candidates, Castello Branco suddenly passed the word last week that he would, after all, support Costa e Silva on the condition that Costa e Silva promise to continue the economic reform program. Then, to prove his good faith, Castello Branco personally amended the Brazilian constitution to permit Costa e Silva to stay on as war minister and campaign for President at the same time. And why not? Campaigning for President shouldn't take too much of his time.

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