Rocky's Dilemma

Five weeks before the New Hampshire primary, Richard Nixon is the odds-on favorite to sink George Romney. Michigan's Governor hopes to bob up for the April 2 primary in Wisconsin, where he was stumping last week, and the May 14 Nebraska test, but Nixon is expected to submerge him in both those places as well.

Romney's waning fortunes have locked his principal supporter, New York's Governor Nelson Rockefeller, in a deadly dilemma. Except for Rocky, Nixon's other potential challengers are fading fast. California's Governor Ronald Reagan last week admitted for the first time that he would accept a vice presidential nomination in the interests of party unity; previously, he had abruptly rejected any such suggestion. Illinois Senator Charles Percy, another dark horse, has disappeared in a very deep shadow. Neither showed promise of emerging from the penumbra except as possibilities for the second spot.

Taking the Baton. Increasingly, Rockefeller looms as the only real challenger to Nixon and the only candidate who can offer G.O.P. moderates a voice at the convention. In the opinion of many party professionals, he is also the only Republican with any chance of defeating Lyndon Johnson next November. Though he trails Nixon in the latest Gallup poll among Republicans, 55% to 41%, he has picked up ten points in only two months. Among G.O.P. Senators and Representatives, Rocky is rated the strongest Republican possibility, leading Nixon by a count of 53.1% to 37.7% in a Congressional Quarterly Survey. In California, Don Muchmore's State Poll shows him beating Johnson by 54% to 37%, while Nixon would lose to the President, 42% to 49% .

But if Rockefeller is the G.O.P.'s most electable candidate, he is also its least nominatable one. His short-lived attempt to derail Nixon in 1960 and his failure to back Barry Goldwater in 1964 still rankle among party workers. Said one Midwestern G.O.P. state chairman: "If Rocky reaches for the nomination, a thousand people will try to cut off his hand." Consequently, Rockefeller's advisers and sympathizers are seriously split on whether he should take the moderates' baton from Romney soon after New Hampshire and plunge into the primaries or wait silently for the convention. If he is to travel the primary route, he must make up his mind a scant week after New Hampshire, for March 19 is the deadline for filing a disclaimer of interest in the May 28 Oregon primary.

On the Wire. To date, Rockefeller's strategy has been to keep Romney's cause afloat at least through the first three or four state primaries. But the pressure is increasing for Rockefeller to speak up for himself and to campaign openly in Oregon, where he has strong support. "Nelson Rockefeller has been silent long enough," the New York Times editorialized last week. "If he is to serve the national interest, he has to make clear his present opinions about the war--in whichever direction they lie--and assume the burdens and risks of active party leadership."

Rocky is aware of his precarious position. At an Albany press conference, he minced gingerly along a television cable like a high-wire specialist and grinned: "That's the position I'm in right now." Explaining his refusal to comment on international issues, he said: "The minute you do, the New York Times and every other newspaper say you're a candidate."

So often has he repeated his disclaimers that he is beginning to seem slightly punchy about it. "I'm not a candidate," he told reporters for the thousandth time last week. "I'm supporting George Wall--George Wallace--George Romney. You've got me so confused now!" Vainly, he has tried to discourage partisans from mounting write-in campaigns in New Hampshire and Oregon. "I write to them," he said, "but I can't go out and shoot them."

If he did enter the primaries, Rockefeller, quite apart from reneging on promises to Romney, would have to stake out positions on Viet Nam and other difficult questions. And that would suit Nixon. Says one of President Johnson's top advisers: "Nixon wants Nelson up there where he can shoot at him. And so do we."

Rocky refuses to be a target. But he is also making the kind of moves that would help if he were later to enter the race. When Nixon announced last week, for example, Rockefeller declared that he admires him and regards his candidacy as a healthy thing for the party, and that he would support Nixon if he were nominated. Such conciliatory tones are wise. Should Nixon falter before August, he could wreck Rocky's chances by using his considerable clout among rank-and-file party members.

Bigger Village. Right or wrong, Rocky believes that his strength is in the polls, not the primaries, so he is standing mute. The question is whether his continued silence and his sideline position will begin to hurt his chances. To hear Rocky tell it, that would hardly disturb him. Discussing his future on a recent plane trip, he remarked that he could happily leave the churning frenzy of big-time politics for something simpler. "You could plop me down in a small village of no more than 200," he said, "and in no time I'd be organizing them to attack local problems." But few doubt that Nelson Rockefeller would vastly prefer to be running a village of, say, 200,000,000.

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