Turbulence for the Concorde

The British-French supersonic Concorde has so far survived difficulties that could easily have wrecked a less prestigious project. The airliner's development cost has soared in four years from $790 million to $1.73 billion, and technical problems have already forced postponement of its maiden flight from last February to September at the earliest. Last week the expensive settlement terms of France's spate of strikes raised new doubts about the Concorde's future.

With French workers winning wage increases averaging 15% this year aviation men estimated that the plane's $20 million price tag will climb by another $700,000--perhaps more. "The increase in French costs is bound to have an adverse effect on the Concorde," said John Stonehouse, British Minister of State for Technology, "because it will be more difficult to sell outside France and the U.K." Indeed the delta-winged plane is already encountering sales trouble: airlines have signed options to buy only 74 Concordes--and the figure has remained static for a year. Even with sales of 200 planes, the Concorde would recoup only one-third of its development cost.

Despite the obvious risk of a money-losing venture, Foreign Minister Michel Debre insisted last week that France will not back out of the project. Whether that assurance remains valid, of course, depends on the outcome of France's elections. A non-Gaullist French government might yield to the rising pressure to divert government spending to social services. Many Britons, chafing at the Concorde's cost, would like to see it scrapped.

A more likely candidate for early cancellation is the subsonic A-300 Anglo-French-German airbus, a short-range craft (up to 1,500 miles) planned for such heavily traveled routes as London to Paris. Though the three countries have poured $12 million into its development, the plane scarcely matches the promised performance of U.S. airbuses. Lockheed's L-1011, for example, will fly almost twice as far, carry more passengers (345 v. 298), cost $15 million as against the A-300's $11 million. McDonnell Douglas' DC-10 holds a somewhat similar edge. And the U.S. models are due to go into commercial service in 1971, at least a year sooner than the European version.

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