CAN NIXON WIN IN NOVEMBER? (AND COULD ROCKY DO BETTER?)

BARRING a dramatic surge by Nelson Rockefeller in the popularity polls, Richard Nixon seems to have the Republican presidential nomination tucked securely in his pocket. But some compelling questions remain:

> Can he win in November?

> If so, are his coattails strong enough to carry significant numbers of Republicans into office with him?

> Could Rocky do better?

A poll of TIME correspondents in all 50 states and the District of Columbia indicates that the answers to the three questions are 1) quite possibly, 2) no, and 3) yes. Regardless of current polls that show him trailing Democrats Hubert Humphrey and Eugene McCarthy, Nixon stands at least an even chance of winning on Election Day. Of course, the conduct of the campaign itself and the effectiveness of the candidates on television could change the outcome. Moreover, this conclusion is based on several premises, none of which may be entirely safe. Among them are the assumptions that Humphrey will be Nixon's opponent, that the Paris peace talks will not have made dramatic progress, which could boost Humphrey's prospects, and that ghetto unrest will not flare into disastrous rioting. Given these qualifications, here is how the race for November figures:

With 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Nixon should carry 239; Humphrey, 215; Alabama's former Governor George Wallace, 17; and 67 are so close as to be uncallable. The tossups are Iowa, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Thus Pennsylvania lives up to its name as the Keystone State: without its electoral votes, Nixon would have to win virtually all of the other close states to go over the top; without its votes, Humphrey could not win, period.

Matter of Concern. With Rockefeller heading the G.O.P. ticket, the picture changes considerably. His appeal in the cities and among non-Republicans would make the difference. He would

(AND COULD ROCKY DO BETTER?)

probably carry New York, Connecticut, Illinois and Ohio among the states now trending toward the Democrats. He might well win in all four tossup states. He might also make some other gains in the East, but would lose heavily in the South. The electoral-vote outlook would be: Rockefeller, 332; Humphrey, 171; Wallace, 17; and 18 in doubt. (For a region-by-region analysis, see below.)

Many Republican officials in such important industrial states as New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio and Illinois are convinced that Nixon's appeal among non-Republicans would be weaker than Rocky's, which might cost the party heavily in contests at other levels. What makes this a matter of concern to the G.O.P. is the latest Gallup estimate that regular Republicans now constitute a scant 27% of the U.S. electorate, while Democrats claim 46% and independents 27%. Nevertheless, Nixon can point to considerable coattail strength of his own. Even though he narrowly lost the race for the presidency in 1960, the G.O.P. was able to register a net gain of 21 seats in the House and two in the Senate when he was at the head of the ticket.

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