Where They Are with Three Weeks to Go

Three weeks before voting day, Richard Nixon maintained his commanding lead. A survey by TIME correspondents of the 50 states last week showed Nixon ahead--frequently far ahead--in 33 states. That is only one fewer (Florida) than he held in a survey by the correspondents one month earlier. Hubert Humphrey led in only six states and the District of Columbia, down four (Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri and Tennessee) from his September showing. In some of those, including New York and his home state of Minnesota, his margin was precarious. George Wallace could claim six Southern states, having picked up two (Arkansas and South Carolina). The breakdown:

NIXON LEADING: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Total electoral votes: 320 (needed for victory: 270).

HUMPHREY LEADING: District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York and Rhode Island. Total electoral votes: 82.

WALLACE LEADING: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. Electoral votes: 53.

TOSSUPS: Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Total electoral votes: 83.

George Wallace has been the only candidate able to pick up any states in the past month's campaigning--even though he has dropped somewhat in at least one poll. In Arkansas he has taken the lead from Humphrey, whose liberalism is anathema to rural Arkies, and might even manage to carry urban Pulaski County (Little Rock). South Carolina's Senator Strom Thurmond has been stumping the South for Nixon but strangely neglecting South Carolina. Wallace, as a result, has edged ahead. Thurmond's own supporters are so concerned that a Wallace victory would damage the Senator's prestige that they have distributed bumper stickers pleading, HELP STROM, ELECT NIXON. But conservative South Carolinians are not inclined to help Strom, and Wallace is now ahead. In Florida, a vague desire to register a protest against both major parties has erased Nixon's earlier lead. His final campaign rally in Miami drew only a so-so crowd last week, and Nixon admitted that the state is "even, insofar as we are concerned and the third-party candidate." Humphrey runs a distant third.

Largely because of Humphrey's organizational troubles, several usually Democratic states are now leaning toward Nixon. Pennsylvania still has a large undecided vote, but the steady decay of the Democratic party machine, a skillfully waged Republican campaign and racial disorders in urban schools are all hurting Humphrey. In Maryland, voters are impressed by Nixon's substantial lead and seem anxious to join his bandwagon. In Tennessee, Humphrey's campaign just never ignited. Nixon currently enjoys a slight edge in Missouri, but if Humphrey picks up any momentum at all in the final weeks, he might be able to carry the normally Democratic state.

Although Nixon held his long lead on a state-by-state basis, the latest Harris poll indicated a gain for Humphrey in the popular vote on a nationwide basis. The survey showed that among a sample of 1,899 voters, 40% intend to go for Nixon, 35% for Humphrey and 18% for Wallace, with 7% still undecided. In mid-September, Harris reported 39% giving their support to Nixon, 31% to Humphrey, 21% to Wallace and 9% undecided.

There is plenty of doubt about the polls in this unusually volatile election. Since three parties are in the race, there are several unknown factors that were not present to complicate the situation in previous years. Because neither of the major candidates has really caught the public imagination, moreover, there are many undecided voters who may wait until Election Day to make up their minds. The Gallup and Harris polls differ, in addition, by as much as ten percentage points on Nixon's margin over Humphrey.

Pollster Burns Roper complains that "the polling profession has done an inadequate job of making both the press and the public aware of the limitations of polling and the large amount of fallible human judgment that goes into any polling operation."

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