On with the Manned Bomber

The last Air Force B-52 to roll off the assembly line was completed six years ago. Ever since, the generals have been arguing for a follow-up aircraft to replace the giant bombers by the mid-1970s. Last week they won their case.

What the Air Force wants is dubbed an "Advanced Manned Strategic Aircraft" (AMSA). Built more like a rocket than a plane, the new bomber would hit a top speed of Mach 2.5 (1,800 m.p.h.) at high altitude on the way to its target. Then, swooping low to avoid detection by enemy radar, it would slow to Mach 1.2 (790 m.p.h.) in the denser air. With a crew of four, it would carry a payload twice that of the B-52 and, with mid-air refueling, would have a range of more than 6,000 miles.

Intelligence Gap. The AMSA concept took a long time to develop and was further delayed by two big Ms--money and McNamara. The former Defense Secretary could never be persuaded of AMSA's immediate merit. He argued that the current B-52s and the troublefraught new FB-llls could be modified with advance defense-penetration devices that would make them effective into the mid-70s. Further, he was reluctant to commit the nation to a vast defense expenditure (210 FB-llls would cost about $1.5 billion, 210 AMSAs would cost $8.1 billion) in view of the gap between development time and intelligence estimates. Under normal circumstances, it would take eight to ten years to develop and deploy AMSA from the date the decision to go ahead was made. But national intelligence estimates can project potential enemy defensive capabilities only two to five years in advance. With this gap, the nation could be committed to an $8.1 billion weapons system it might not need. And with the defense budget already swollen with the demands of Viet Nam, McNamara refused to take that risk. Also, some defense officials felt that in the missile age, manned bombers were unnecessary. With Clark Clifford's arrival in the Pentagon, attitudes changed. The new Secretary of Defense was "inclined" to agree that there is a need for the new bomber, and with that, AMSA gained new impetus. Already, $120 million has been spent for advanced research and development. However, under the terms of last week's agreement, the Air Force cannot go ahead with full development and procurement. First, there will be a design competition that will last at least two years and cost several hundred million dollars. By waiting for a successful design to be developed by industry, the Pentagon will be able to spread the costs over the two-year period without committing itself to any one company for production. By 1970, when U.S. intelligence may have a clearer picture of future Soviet defense plans, a decision to go ahead with full development and procurement could be made.

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