Twin Stalemates

Harold Wilson paid a four-day call on Nigeria last week, his R.A.F. VC-10 borne from London to Lagos on symbolic currents of hope that the British Prime Minister can somehow nudge one of the world's wars toward a negotiating table.

After nearly two years, Nigerians and rebellious Biafrans are close to stalemate. Nigerian troops are liberally supplied by both the British and the Russians with jet planes, mortars, armored cars and guns; but up to now they have often used the equipment like dilettantes. The outgunned, outmanned Biafrans have retreated to advantageously familiar home ground, and receive French arms by air. On their northeastern front, the Nigerians are largely in control. In the southeast, the Biafrans have 3,000 Nigerian soldiers encircled at Owerri but lack strength to wipe out the pocket and push south toward the oil town of Port Harcourt. Last week, in an offensive obviously timed for Wilson's visit, Nigerians launched a general attack in the north that carried them closer to Biafra's lone airstrip at Uli. Unless it is totally successful and quickly ends the war, the humane solution would be a truce.

Suspicion About Mediation. Stepping into the muggy heat at Ikeja airport, Wilson avoided suggestions that he had come to mediate. One reason was his awareness of a persistent local suspicion that he had come to pressure the federal military government to make concessions to the Biafrans. Major General Yakubu Gowon, who heads both army and government, intends to fight, he says, "until the rebellion is completely crushed" unless he hears "alternative suggestions," meaning Biafran capitulation. If Wilson presses him to stop by cutting off the arms supply, Gowon can easily cover any cutback in British shipments with increased deliveries from Russia. Moreover, Britain might lose investments in Nigerian oilfields that now amount to $720 million. To avoid those unpleasant possibilities, Wilson lamely explained last week that he had come "to help mitigate the suffering of your country, of its people and, not least, of its children."

Quartered at the State House in Lagos, where British governors once resided and where Admiral Horatio Nelson still looks down from the wall, Wilson nevertheless proceeded to do some blunt overseer's talking. He brought up a topic that embarrasses Britain and shocks nations who would otherwise be more sympathetic to Nigeria: the indiscriminate Nigerian bombing of Biafran hospitals, schools, markets and missions. Gowon insisted that this is not his policy but that he cannot always control his pilots. Neutral observers in Biafra have tallied 677 civilian dead and 1,313 wounded in 30 civilian strikes this year alone.

Outside Intervention. Wilson's concern over civilian bombings, followed by war-zone visits that turned out to be cursory, convinced skeptics that the Prime Minister had made the trip merely to appease liberal critics at home. Reported TIME Correspondent Lansing Lamont from Enugu: "He spent hours getting to the two hospital and rehabilitation centers in Enugu, then spent only a few minutes at each. On that basis he then delivered an endorsement of Nigerian refugee policies on which he had clearly made up his mind before even visiting the centers." The British did, however, extend feelers toward a meeting between Wilson and Biafran Leader Odumegwu Ojukwu. Biafrans are hostile toward Britain because of the arms situation and refer to Wilson as the "crime minister."

Still, Ojukwu, who last week took personal command of Biafran forces attempting to blunt the Nigerian attack, realizes that if the stalemate materializes, only outside intervention of some sort will end the war now. In an interview at Umuahia, he suggested that the feasible way to bring Nigeria to the bargaining table was "a diplomatic victory whereby Nigeria would be faced with the spectre of isolation." Was Wilson the man to bring off such a diplomatic victory? Replied Ojukwu: "I do sincerely hope that this trip is no gimmick and that he is genuinely out for peace. It is true that his previous actions do not justify this hope. Yet for the sake of Nigeria, Biafra, Africa and Britain, one can only hope."

Where to Meet? Ojukwu's government announced that the "people of Biafra look forward with interest to a visit by the British Prime Minister." Yet a meeting between the two leaders is complicated. Wilson can scarcely visit Ojukwu in Biafra and thereby award tacit British recognition to the rebel government. Ojukwu is unlikely to accept alternative talks aboard a British warship such as Wilson and Rhodesian Prime Minister Ian Smith held last year.

Wilson is scheduled this week to fly on to Addis Ababa for discussions on the war with Emperor Haile Selassie; so a third suggestion was that Ojukwu join him there. But the bearded emperor has twice persuaded Ojukwu to take part in talks with the Nigerians that turned out to be futile. As a result, Ojukwu mistrusts the Lion of Judah, and would probably not come to Addis Ababa. Under such circumstances, peace negotiations appear to be as close to stalemate as the war.

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