Challenger, Front and Center

They laughed three weeks ago when French pollsters predicted that Charles de Gaulle's referendum would go down to defeat. Les psephologistes, of course, had the last laugh. So when Le Figaro last week published the first public-opinion survey showing preferences for De Gaulle's successor, candidates and voters paid close attention. As expected, Gaullist ex-Premier Georges Pompidou led the field, the choice of 42% of those queried. What was surprising was that close behind him, with a hefty 35% of the vote, came Interim President Alain Poher. The showing made the still undeclared Poher a serious candidate who could conceivably outdistance Pompidou in the election set for June 1 -- or certainly force him into a runoff. Frenchmen asked to choose only between the two favorites were almost evenly divided: Pompidou got 50.5% of the vote, Poher 49.5% .

Third Force. Considering that Poher was virtually unknown in France six weeks ago, and has enjoyed the public eminence of the Elysee for only two weeks, it was a remarkable vote of confidence. His standing clearly reflects France's approval of his adept and sensible performance. True to the Fourth Republic style of cultivating groundswells, Poher held off from declaring his widely expected candidacy until the last minute (the deadline is this week) but did what he could to build suspense. He was feeling "calm and serene," he assured newsmen at his first press conference. What about entering the race? "I am not a candidate, and I do not hope to be a candidate, but maybe I will be obliged to be a candidate," said Poher. Politicians streamed in and out of the Elysee to confer with him, and even Mayor Gaston Defferre of Marseille, the Socialist Party candidate, left the impression that he might move aside in favor of a true "third force" candidate between the Gaullists and the Communists.

Last week's polls only partly indicate how formidable a threat Poher is to Pompidou. If no one wins a majority on June 1, a runoff election between the two top vote getters will be held two weeks later. Pompidou might then find that Gaullist drawing power is fixed. If Poher, on the other hand, can assemble a large anti-Gaullist coalition -- such as defeated the referendum -- his current 35% reading might translate into a majority, as those voters who backed candidates eliminated in Round 1 choose between the two survivors. He already has the endorsement of his own centrist party; besides Defferre, the pivotal backers that could broaden his base include former Premier Pierre Mendes France, a socialist, and former Finance Minister Antoine Pinay, a conservative -- both of whom paid calls on him last week. The Communists have not fielded a presidential candidate since 1946, and their current choice, a 7 3-year-old Stalinist fixture named Jacques Duclos, drew only 10% of the poll vote --about half the strength they normally show in assembly elections.

A New Start. Front Runner Pompidou, an astute analyst of French politics, is neither unaware of nor unimpressed by the potency of a possible third force. "They mix and mix, stir and stir, hoping the soup will be good," he said just before the referendum, and Pompidou has taken care to do some stirring of his own. He has talked with some centrist politicians and, in a political statement of faith (slogan: "A New Start") worked out at his country home last weekend, he promised to give the Assembly a greater say in running the government--a centrist obsession. He also decided to switch away from a campaign strategy based on TV appearances and announced that he would spend nearly half the two-week campaign visiting every region in France.

At week's end, in a speech to the Gaullist party's central committee, Pompidou made his most open bid so far for the vote of disaffected centrists. The referendum indicated a "desire for change," he said. He favored "the enlargement of Europe" and the development of a "European political consciousness"--both of which suffered under De Gaulle's domineering leadership. Clearly, Pompidou was promising a government that would significantly alter De Gaulle's eleven-year legacy.

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