Approaching Flashpoint

"In the ebb and flow of histories and cultures," Lawrence Durrell once wrote of Cyprus, "it has time and time again been a flashpoint where Aryan and Semite, Christian and Moslem, met in a death-embrace." The legendary island of Aphrodite gained independence from Britain a decade ago. Yet it remains an uneasy homeland to 490,000 Greek Cypriots, most of whom have traditionally espoused enosis (union with Greece), and 110,000 Turkish Cypriots, who have long favored partition of the island. In December 1963, savage fighting broke out between the two communities. In November 1967, war between Greece and Turkey over Cyprus was narrowly averted by the mediation of Lyndon Johnson's emissary, former U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Cyrus Vance. Now, a campaign of terrorism again threatens to bring the island to flashpoint.

Unrealistic Goal. The latest trouble began on New Year's Eve, when a band of Greek Cypriot fanatics known as the National Front seized 2,500 sticks of dynamite from an iron-pyrites mine --"enough to blow up every building in Nicosia," according to one newspaper. Soon afterward, bombs began to explode at random points throughout the island (see map), and a police station was seized temporarily. The attacks were aimed not at the Turkish Cypriot community but at the policies of Archbishop Makarios, the island's President. Makarios was re-elected in 1968 on a platform of "a feasible solution rather than the desirable solution"--meaning that he had discarded enosis as a practical goal and hoped to turn his anguished island into a unified republic.

A majority of Greek Cypriots has reluctantly accepted the cold truth "that Greece's military junta has no desire to risk war with Turkey by supporting an enosis movement. Following the 1967 crisis, Greek Premier George Papadopoulos removed 7,000 of the 8,000 troops then based on Cyprus to avoid a showdown. Last month, at Makarios' request, he repudiated the National Front. Makarios then ordered a police crackdown on illegally held arms, and the Cyprus parliament dealt the Front an even stronger blow two weeks ago by passing a law enabling the government to detain suspected terrorists for three months without trial.

A New Generation. The terrorism has placed an added strain on leaders of the Greek and Turkish communities, who have been trying vainly for 19 months to work out a formula for peaceful coexistence. For two years, Turkish Cypriots have been permitted to travel and work throughout the Greek areas. But the dozens of Turkish enclaves scattered across the island, complete with separate schools and public services, remain isolated and economically depressed. While the Greek Cypriot economy flourishes, the Turkish community is forced to support its 20,000 unemployed with annual handouts of $20 million from the Turkish government. Even more serious, however, is the fact that the communities are drawing farther apart in a process described as "creeping partition"--and the renewed terrorism may accelerate the process. Says Rauf Denktash, president of the Turkish Cypriot Communal Chamber: "Cypriots of my generation at least knew each other. A new generation is growing up in different school systems, without any friends on the other side."

In the face of the government's strength, the National Front pledged to suspend its terrorist activities --and so far has kept its word.

Some observers fear, however, that the Front is merely reorganizing for a spring or summer campaign aimed directly at the Turkish Cypriots--a strategy that would almost certainly lead to an invasion by the Turkish army. Said a Western diplomat: "International pressure stopped the Turks from invading in 1967. Nobody would be able to stop them this time."

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