Mounting Uneasiness in Southeast Asia

A5 a new regime sought to consolidate its hold on Cambodia last week, portraits of Prince Norodom Sihanouk were hurriedly removed in government offices and shops throughout the capital of Phnom-Penh. While the deposed chief of state was gone, however, it was clear that he was not forgotten. In a Phnom-Penh hotel, a visitor asked for one of the Sihanouk portraits as a souvenir. "Oh no," replied a clerk. "We are saving it. Nothing is sure. We may have to put it back up."

A mood of uneasiness and uncertainty prevailed in Cambodia and in neighboring Laos as well. In Peking, Sihanouk called for a war of liberation against the "traitors and renegades" who had seized power in Phnom-Penh. From Hanoi came pledges of "total support" for Sihanouk, and North Vietnamese Premier Pham Van Dong hurried to Peking to confer with the deposed prince. In Phnom-Penh, both the North Vietnamese and the Viet Cong closed their embassies, a move short of outright diplomatic rupture but suggestive of trouble to come.

Late in the week it came. Pro-Sihanouk riots erupted north of Phnom-Penh, and two National Assembly deputies who had voted to depose Sihanouk were reportedly slashed to death. To keep the demonstrations from spreading to the capital, the government sent tanks to seal off roads leading to Phnom-Penh, closed Pochentong Airport and imposed a 6 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew. More ominously, Acting Head of State Cheng Heng charged that Viet Cong forces on Cambodian soil "have begun actions against the Cambodian people and our soldiers" near the border, and Prince Sirik Matak warned that an attack by thousands of Communist troops "could not be ruled out." There were reports that several thousand Communist troops had entered the country to foment trouble, and the new government called up its reserves and asked all veterans to report for duty. Meanwhile, in Laos, rampaging Communist forces were less than 1 1/2 miles away from the key CIA base at Long Cheng. A new chapter in the turbulent history of Indochina was unfolding, and few cared to predict whether it was the preface to a wider war.

Down to Size. Styling itself a "government of salvation," the regime of General Lon Nol, the Premier, and Prince Sirik Matak, the Deputy Premier, moved to persuade Cambodia of the rightness of its rule. In meetings with major national groups--leading Buddhist bonzes, district chiefs, students and members of Sihanouk's own political movement, the Sangkum--the new leaders explained their actions in detail and stressed the economic difficulties and moral corruption of recent years. Key Sihanouk backers were jailed.

Still, one Western diplomat suggested that if Sihanouk were to turn up at the airport tomorrow, "the guards, instead of arresting him, would probably prostrate themselves before him." To cut Sihanouk down to size, the government began waging an intensive propaganda campaign. The local press, which had previously referred to him as a god-prince, mocked him savagely and his half-Italian wife Princess Monique even more. Some newspapers ran composite photos of her head on anonymous nude bodies in obscene poses. The prince's popularity, however, remained a troublesome factor.

An Army Affair. An equally serious difficulty was the Communist Vietnamese military presence. Before Sihanouk's fall, Lon Nol called on the Communists to evacuate their Cambodian sanctuaries immediately. That demand was not emphasized publicly after the takeover. Nonetheless, Sirik Matak told TIME Correspondent Burton Pines in Phnom-Penh that getting rid of the Communist forces remained a primary goal. "We demand that they immediately leave our territory," the prince said. "Sihanouk violated his own--and our--proclaimed policy of neutralism by permitting the Vietnamese foreigners to stay inside Cambodia. We cannot tolerate it. We have every expectation that this matter can be solved peacefully. If not, it will become an affair for our army."

If last week's border clashes were to develop into an all-out war between Cambodia's 37,000-man army and the better-armed, better-organized Communist troops, a slaughter would probably ensue. Cambodia could call on the Americans and South Vietnamese, but that would almost certainly plunge the country--like Laos--inextricably into the agonizing morass of the Viet Nam War. "In no case would I envisage asking any of our neighbors--Thailand, Laos, South Viet Nam--for assistance," Sirik Matak told Pines. "To ask others to help us militarily would destroy the independence and neutrality that are the preconditions of our small nation's existence." U.S. jets strafed Communist positions in Cambodia. It was the fifth time this year that the U.S. has admitted to air raids over Cambodia.

Coup Rumors. In Laos, the question was how far the six battalions of North Vietnamese troops that were probing Laotian defenses around Long Cheng intended to go. Would they overrun the base and keep moving right to the plains just north of Vientiane? A major push seemed several days off at least, but U.S. advisers and government defenders prepared a fallback position at Ban Son, 20 miles south of the base. Meanwhile, U.S. warplanes continued to bomb Communist supply routes across northern Laos. Despite U.S. estimates that the air attacks have inflicted 20% casualties on Communist units, the bombing has failed to stem the tide of supplies.

Though a new Communist Pathet Lao peace plan was delivered to Prince Souvanna Phouma, the neutralist but Western-leaning Premier of Laos, he decided to defer a decision until the Cambodian situation settles down. In any case, the prospect that anything solid may emerge from the Pathet Lao plan is slight. As a precondition, the Communists insist that American planes halt their bombing in Laos. U.S. officials have indicated that the bombing will not stop, even at Souvanna's request. As Secretary of State William Rogers noted last week: "If North Viet Nam continues to use the Ho Chi Minh Trail as a principal supply route to South Viet Nam, obviously we would not be in a position to stop."

Souvanna may be encountering some difficulty himself, from the right as well as the left. Rumors of a possible right-wing coup were once again afloat in Vientiane. As for the left, Souvanna said that Hanoi hoped to capitalize on the coup in Cambodia by solidifying its hold on Laos while everybody's attention was directed elsewhere. "North Viet Nam," said Souvanna, "has a desire for hegemony in this area."

Tempting Target. That seems true enough. There is little doubt that Hanoi and Washington alike are deeply worried about what may happen next in the area. A broadening of the war could place enormous strains on Hanoi's resources, but the North Vietnamese may be tempted to strike if their sanctuaries are seriously endangered. The U.S., on the other hand, may be tempted to remove once and for all the border sanctuaries that have enabled Hanoi to prolong the war.

Unless the U.S. is willing to take the chance of widening the war, however, it might be wiser to settle for smaller gains. One possibility would be for the U.S. to discourage Cambodia from military action against the Communists, but to encourage the new regime to curtail their supplies. If Washington were to seek any more dramatic profit from the current turmoil, it might risk throwing away the hope of a long-term political settlement in exchange for a short-term military advantage.

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