Closer to Chaos

Conflicts will continue even if Jesus Christ descends to this seat. I, senores, am an instrument of destiny.

As 25 gold-encrusted armed forces officers stood behind him in the National Palace last month, President Joaquin Balaguer thus announced his determination to ignore growing opposition and run for a second four-year term. Part of the President's prophecy has already proved accurate. As a result of Balaguer's stand, conflicts in the troubled country of 4,174,000 are heating to the boil. In response to his decision, an alliance of seven opposition parties last week threatened to boycott the May 16 election if Balaguer did not resign before beginning his campaign. The President refused, bringing the island republic closer to chaos than it has been at any time since the 1965 civil war.

The re-election crisis reflects the deeply ingrained Dominican worry about continuismo--the Latin American habit of hanging on to power. Just a year ago, Balaguer was publicly pooh-poohing questions about a second term, saying that "only a plebiscite of gigantic proportions" could make him run again. But more and more it appears that the bachelor President is harking back to the example of his old boss, Dictator Rafael Leonidas Trujillo, who carefully orchestrated elections during his 31-year rule. Under Trujillo, Balaguer served briefly as a puppet President.

Having taken care to renounce Trujillo before returning to the country in 1965, after 23,000 U.S. troops had brought an end to the bloody civil war, Balaguer won the 1966 election with an impressive 57% of the vote on a "peace and order" platform. Going into the 1970 election, he has the backing of most of the military and nearly all of the country's businessmen. In his 3 1/2 years in office, he has curbed inflation, balanced the budget and attracted a modest but vital flow of foreign capital. He has even profited from the weather. Record crops ensure that the campesinos, who constitute 70% of the population, are pro-Balaguer.

Polarized Foes. The one thing Balaguer has not been able to do is leave the presidency. Early in his term, he changed the constitution to permit reelection. As it became clear that he planned to take advantage of the change, his opposition polarized. The wondrously wide-gauged group that served the ultimatum includes Vice President Francisco Lora, who quit Balaguer's Reformist Party over the re-election issue; ex-General Elias Wessin y Wessin, the rightist soldier who tried unsuccessfully to crush the 1965 revolution, and the P.R.D. (Dominican Revolutionary Party), which started it. The leftist, urban-oriented P.R.D., Balaguer's chief opposition, has been making headway with charges that Balaguer's police and troops --who he admits are difficult to control --have been reviving old-style political killings and repression. Last week police machine-gunned striking dock workers in Puerto Plata, killing four and wounding 18.

In their ultimatum, the seven opposition parties demanded that Balaguer campaign on an equal footing with other candidates, without presidential prerogatives. Unless he did, they threatened, they would refuse to participate in an election that would only be "a sneer to the people." Balaguer replied with lofty disdain. "To quit as presidente," he said, "would be handing them a coup d'etat." He challenged his opponents to unite behind one candidate, who could give him a real race for the presidency. If they stay away, said Balaguer, "I will go to the election alone." With the army on his side, Balaguer would hardly be alone, but that is no assurance against trouble in a country that has had 26 changes of government, twelve coups and two U.S. armed interventions since the turn of the century.

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