In the Wake of Mao's Moon

The Italians christened it "Mao's moon." The British said its recording of The East Is Red sounded somewhat like the chimes of an ice-cream wagon. Though the "moon's" batteries were running down, the message that China's 380-Ib. satellite delivered as it orbited the earth last week was clear enough. Peking's space feat would inevitably affect the course of the SALT talks between the U.S. and the Soviet Union at Vienna, and ultimately it might also set off a nuclear-arms race among a number of smaller powers. In fact, the prospects for enforcing the treaty on banning the spread of nuclear weapons seem more doubtful than ever.

The launching two weeks ago only confirmed Western estimates of China's approaching capability to build and use ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles). The Defense Department had previously speculated that China would have 80 to 100 IRBMs (intermediate range missiles) by the mid-1970s; the first ones, with a range of 1,000 miles, were expected to be deployed some time this year. Studying data about the satellite, some Western scientists believe that it was lofted into orbit by a booster, probably equivalent to the U.S.'s Scout or Redstone rocket. Such a system would also provide enough power to fire a small nuclear warhead 6,000 miles. Since the Chinese have already exploded a missile-type H-bomb warhead, Peking beyond any doubt will, within weeks or months, possess at least the first elements of a nuclear missile force. Chinese reports on the progress of the satellite also showed that they have built an efficient guidance system, which is a necessity for further ICBM development.

The satellite's first diplomatic impact will probably be on the SALT talks. Both the U.S. and the Soviet Union will feel renewed pressure to build "thin" anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems; in the U.S., the Nixon Administration's campaign for the $12.4 billion Safeguard ABM program appeared to gain support in Congress last week. But the pressure on the Soviets will be all the greater because many Siberian bases and towns lie within easy range of Chinese IRBMs. In the Vienna talks, the Soviets are almost certain to insist that any treaty should include provisions allowing both nations to build ABM shields, and permitting either party to renege on certain agreements later if the Chinese military threat should increase. Thus, the Chinese development may set off another upward spiral in the nuclear race.

Threshold Nations. Many diplomats feel that an even more alarming possibility is the effect the Chinese nuclear capability may have on the world's secondary powers. At least nine nations have the wealth and expertise to develop a nuclear bomb. The peaceful use of nuclear energy has, ironically, given them both the know-how and material for making bombs; nuclear reactors used for generating electricity produce many pounds of plutonium, the explosive material in H-bombs. Among these threshold nations are Australia, Canada, West Germany, Italy, Sweden and perhaps South Africa. At a cost of $1 billion, any of them could build H-bombs and delivery systems within five to ten years. But the likeliest new members of the nuclear club are India, Japan and Israel.

> India, like China and France, has refused to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The government has not admitted that it is considering building a nuclear bomb, but it has studied the costs. India already has a nuclear power station and a chemical separation plant (necessary for extracting plutonium from uranium in the making of nuclear weapons). Within four to five years India expects to launch a satellite. In parliamentary debates last week in New Delhi, opposition members put pressure on the government of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to build a bomb. The alternative, wrote Indian Express Columnist Nandan Kagal, is "to remain a second-rate power till kingdom come."

> Japan has 25 atomic-power generators in operation, is planning 20 more, and is building its first nuclear-powered merchant ship. But as the only people to have suffered a nuclear holocaust, the Japanese still feel a deep revulsion against nuclear armaments. Nonetheless, as Japan assumes a larger role in Asia, the country may feel the need for the superpower weapons to match its growing international status.

>Israel's 26-megawatt reactor at Dimona in the Negev produces 13 Ibs. of plutonium a year--enough to make at least one small nuclear bomb of the size that leveled Nagasaki. The Israelis have vowed that they would not be the first country in the Middle East to acquire nuclear weapons. But they obviously would also not be the last. Speculation is that Israel has merely sought to develop a nuclear "option," and has stopped short of producing a bomb.

The spread of nuclear weapons to smaller powers would create a wide array of new political and technical problems. The nuclear newcomers, including the Chinese, for example, will have only "first-strike" weapons that would sit on unprotected sites. At moments of crisis, these exposed weapons could be wiped out by an enemy attack unless they were fired first. This obviously provides an incentive, however insane, for the smaller power to strike the first blow. The nightmarish prospect of nuclear proliferation may yet require a more sweeping round of nuclear disarmament talks than have been held thus far.

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