The Lesser Evil?

Officially, the campaign had not even begun, but the snipers were already at work. The Labor Party's sharpshooters opened their advertising effort with a photo of six figurines, representing Tory leaders, over a headline: YESTERDAY'S MEN THEY FAILED BEFORE. The Conservatives matched it with a huge photo of an overflowing wastebasket headlined: LABOUR SAY THEY WILL FIGHT ON THEIR RECORD. GOOD. HERE IT IS. Plainly, Britain is in for several weeks of cutting exchanges before the June 18 elections.

At the moment, Labor Prime Minister Harold Wilson holds an edge -a remarkable fact inasmuch as the Tories enjoyed a 26.8% majority in one public opinion poll only last year. At that time Conservative Leader Edward ("Ted") Heath and his party had everything going for them, most notably a sick economy. But as winter melted into spring, some of Labor's economic policies began taking hold. The delayed effects of Wilson's 1967 devaluation of the pound were finally being felt. The hold-down on demand for more consumer products was also making an impact. There was new confidence in the pound, particularly in the wake of France's devaluation and West Germany's revaluation. As a result, the country's chronic balance of payments deficit was turned into a projected $1.2 billion surplus for 1970. A bullish mood was in the air, and voters began to feel their pocketbooks swelling with widespread wage increases averaging 6% in the past six months alone. The change of British fortunes was soon reflected in local elections and opinion polls.

Full of confidence, Wilson last week delivered to Heath a note on his 10 Downing Street writing paper that began teasingly: "Dear Ted, I thought it might be helpful to let you know . . ." Then Wilson drove past the freshly gilded gates of Buckingham Palace in his black Rover to ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament so that the three-week campaign could get under way.

Fading Glitter. Another important factor in Wilson's decision to call elections may well have been that current economic cheeriness may ebb by fall, particularly if Wall Street continues to behave so badly. Inevitably, price increases will follow those glittering wage hikes. April cost-of-living figures, released last week, showed a 2% rise, sharpest for any month in two years. Retail price increases this year will run about 7%. Unemployment, at 2.5% as of last week, is the highest for any May since 1940. In addition, there was the prospect that renewed troubles this summer in Northern Ireland would embarrass Wilson. Until Wilson's Home Secretary, James Callaghan, last week pressured South Africa's all-white Sprinkbok cricket team into canceling its scheduled visit, there was also the likelihood of anti-apartheid protests from British liberals, which might have stirred up a pro-Tory "law-and-order" vote.

The greatest problem of the Tories is, as usual, Ted Heath. A bachelor at 53, he is hardly a Trudeau-like swinger. The son of a carpenter, he is often put down as an arriviste by the snobbish Tory squirearchy, and resented as overly stuffy by workingmen. An uninspired orator, he so lacks appeal that he has rarely registered more than 30% approval in the polls. "Despite all the publicity for him," a leading Tory complains, "he still doesn't get across, and he won't get anywhere until he learns to join the human race." Wilson, 54, may strike many Britons as occasionally pompous, but Heath too often comes across as downright prissy; he nearly blushed purple the other day when two twentyish birds stopped him on a street to ask what he intended to do about the exorbitant price of "panty tights." His hobbies are playing classics on the organ, and sailing a sleek racing yacht.

Though Heath cried last week, "We are going to win!" the Tories need an electoral swing of at least 4% in their favor over their 1966 showing. The greatest swing in the last six general elections, however, was only 3.1%, and there are doubts that Heath can retrieve a victory. As Wilson said jestingly in the House of Commons a few weeks ago, "However tired people may be of me, I think most will regard me as the lesser of two evils."

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