Middle East: New Danger from Old Foes

During their 1948 War for Independence, Israeli Jews adopted a phrase to hearten one another no matter how gloomy a situation appeared. "Yihye tov," they would say in Hebrew, meaning "It will be good." The words gradually became a talisman against any troubles, and they were invoked frequently during the Six-Day War --whose third anniversary comes this week. Now, however, the phrase has been amended. "Yihye beseder" or roughly, "It will be O.K." The difference seems slight, but it is not. Confidence has given way to a nagging note of uncertainty. Things may be O.K., but they will not be all that good.

Three years of unresolved hostility help account for the change. Every border settlement exists under the gun. This week it is the frontier with Lebanon (see following story). Next week it might be the border with Syria. The greatest cause of concern, however, is the big Soviet buildup in Egypt and what the Israelis regard as a timid U.S. response --though Washington last week began talking considerably tougher.

Growing Presence. Since early spring, the Russians have switched roles from protector of the Egyptians to participant in the hostilities. The Soviet presence has multiplied from 4,000 military advisers and technicians to 10,000 and is still growing. At least 250 Russian pilots, by Israeli count, are flying MIGs with Egyptian markings, and at least 25 SA3 missile sites are spotted around Cairo, Alexandria and the Aswan High Dam. The U.S. does not quarrel with Israel about the accuracy of those figures --just about their meaning. Up to now, Washington has considered the Russian threat less imminent than has Israel.

At first, the Russians and their Arab allies denied reports of an expanded Soviet presence. Now, that presence is far too visible to be denied. Speaking last week in Khartoum, capital of the Sudan, Egypt's President Gamal Abdel Nasser declared that Soviet technicians are serving with Egyptian forces "everywhere." Said he: "This, dear brothers, is how we have been able to stand fast and face Israel. This is how, dear brothers, we have been able to rebuild the strong army that stands at the front today."

The meaning of that statement was entirely clear to Sudanese Strongman Major General Jaafar Nemery, who, celebrating the first anniversary of the coup that brought him to power in Khartoum, had asked Nasser to join the festivities. Nemery has admitted 1,000 Soviet military advisers and economic technicians to Sudan. Several are training his pilots to fly MIG-21s. East Germany, meanwhile, provides advisers for Nemery's increasingly elaborate internal-security program.

A Hairbreadth Away. The sizable Soviet involvement in Egypt has resulted in some strange diplomatic repercussions. Partly to needle the U.S. into providing them with additional jets, the Israelis have begun hinting at a deal with Moscow: a reopening of the Suez Canal in return for a Russian-guaranteed cease-fire agreement. The exchange would give Russian warships easy access to the Indian Ocean from the Mediterranean. Commercially, the U.S. has not been seriously inconvenienced by the canal's closure; militarily, keeping the Russians from using it is a plus. At the same time, Israel has warned Moscow through several diplomatic channels, and in no uncertain terms, that without a ceasefire, any Russian who ventures into a 25-mile corridor above the Egyptian-held west bank of the canal risks a dogfight. Jerusalem's great fear is that the Russians will try to move the SA-3s right along the canal. Israeli jets have bombed what they reported were newly poured concrete foundations for SAMs at 7 1/2-mile intervals along the canal, but construction appears to be continuing.

Since Russian pilots first began to fly operationally in Egypt in April, planes of the two sides have sighted one another on at least two occasions. Both times the Israelis pulled away on orders from Air Force Commander Mordechai Hod. They have orders not to turn away next time. There is evidence that the Russians, who initially were sending up planes every time the Israelis bombed the canal's west bank, have now resigned themselves to a kind of coexistence with Jerusalem's warplanes over a slice of Egypt's airspace. Unless the Russians avoid the canal, Defense Minister Moshe Dayan warned last week, "confrontation is only a hairbreadth away."

Empty-Handed. It was to prepare for a possible confrontation that Foreign Minister Abba Eban visited Washington to renew Israel's request for 25 Phantom jets and 100 Skyhawks. He returned empty-handed last week, but at least he received some advice. One reason the U.S. was holding back, he was told, was the belligerent attitude of Israeli hawks, including Premier Golda Meir. Eban, a longtime dove, sat up until 3 a.m. with Mrs. Meir, polishing her address to the Knesset (Parliament) on foreign policy. Next day, in the course of a 90-minute speech, she mentioned peace no fewer than 90 times. Because of the Soviet presence, she said, "the region has been flung into a new dimension of tension" and may be dragged "into an escalation of warfare and killing." Nevertheless, she added, Israel's position was still "ceasefire, agreement and peace." The generally milder tone of her speech brought disapproving murmurs and hints of revolt from the right-wing, annexationist Gahal party, which holds six of the 24 posts in her Cabinet. Mrs. Meir refused to back down.

Piecemeal Fashion. Golda's slight shift to a softer position, combined with Washington's growing concern over the Soviet role in Egypt, may help persuade the Nixon Administration to supply those jets. At the NATO conference in Rome last week, Secretary of State Rogers called the increased Soviet presence a new danger to the Middle East and added that the U.S. was reconsidering Israel's request to buy more jets. This week Rogers will meet with Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin, who is fresh from a trip to Moscow, and seek an explanation of what one official termed Russia's ''unprecedented intransigence" in the Middle East. U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Jacob Beam was recently dispatched to the Kremlin for such an explanation but got no more than the standard Soviet answer that the equipment sent to Nasser was "defensive." In Washington, the State Department's spokesman said that all inquiries to date have brought only "imprecise and unsatisfactory" responses from Moscow. If that keeps up, Israel might get the planes it wants, perhaps in a quiet, piecemeal fashion.

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