Middle East: That Electronic Summer

WITH almost eerie prescience, Israel's Defense Minister Moshe Dayan predicted four months ago: "This summer is going to be an electrifying one, an electronic one. There will be some fighting, but its accent will probably revolve around the deployment and setting up of new weapons systems. There will be lots of aerial incursions." By an electronic summer, Dayan meant clashes between Soviet-built, radar-controlled Egyptian surface-to-air missiles and Israeli jets equipped with electronic countermeasure (ECM) devices. Bearing out Dayan's forecast fully, the electronic war last week was humming at full frequency--and it involved not only the principal Middle East adversaries but increasingly the U.S. and Russia.

The first results stunned Israel. In the space of six days three Israeli Phantom jets were shot down, and all but one of the six pilots and crewmen involved were captured by the Egyptians. To Israeli officials, it seemed plain the Soviet Union had moved into a crucial phase in its Arab support.

The Button Pushers. Phase I, as the Israelis see it, began last March when Soviet SA3 ground-to-air missiles were shipped to Egypt along with Russian crews to man them. Phase 2 soon followed when MIG-21s manned by Russian pilots began to fly operational missions in Egypt. Planes and missiles were deployed around Cairo, Alexandria and in the interior of Egypt to bar Israel's jets, which had been carrying on deep-penetration bombing raids to ease pressure on troops along the Suez Canal.

Phase 3 began two weeks ago when older, Soviet-made SA-2s were moved --mostly in secret and at night--within eleven miles of the west bank of the Suez Canal. Israeli reconnaissance watched them, but no effort was made to bomb them for fear Russian MIGs would respond. In North Viet Nam the same type of SA-2s had a "kill" rate of less than one success per 1,000 firings. Suddenly they shot down two Phantoms within 30 minutes (the third downed Phantom was apparently hit by antiaircraft fire), indicating obvious improvements in their radar systems.

In a special televised news conference, Israeli Chief of Staff Haim Bar-Lev provided specifics. He said 15 batteries of

SA-2s, each with six missile launchers, had been moved to positions ranging from eleven miles to 35 miles west of the canal (see map). Just beyond the SA-2s, and outside the 20-mile swath west of Suez, at least two SA3 batteries were emplaced. According to Bar-Lev --and Washington intelligence sources agree--both batteries are close enough to protect some of the more exposed SA-2s and restrict Israeli jets. The SA-3s are manned only by Russian crews. But even though Egyptians crew the SA-2s, Bar-Lev claimed that "in every battery we have a few Russian officers who maybe do not push the button, but who make sure the button is not pushed before or after it should be." Bar-Lev was particularly concerned because the SA-2s appeared to be equipped with better acquisition and guidance radar systems than previous models. In addition, the missiles that brought down the Phantoms were fired in a "ripple" or sequence pattern, which can prove devastatingly difficult to evade.

Hannibal at the Gates. In the wake of the Phantom losses, Air Force Commander Mordechai Hod described Egypt's reinforced air defenses as "the Russian fist covered by an Egyptian glove." He warned his men would "choose when to take care of them." Before the week was out, the Israelis claimed the destruction of five SA-2 sites by jet bombers--and if there are "a few" Soviet officers at every battery, the air strikes might very well have killed a dozen or more Russians. In Cairo, however, some Western diplomats expressed doubt that missiles have been moved up to the canal in such numbers, or that Russians are involved to the degree Israelis claim.

Premier Golda Meir was especially upset by this new turn. Said one Israeli politician after meeting with her: "I feel like I've just come from a meeting of the Roman Senate, where the Premier was exclaiming, 'Hannibal is at the gates!' " At Jerusalem's Hebrew University, where Mrs. Meir received an honorary doctorate in philosophy she said: "Today, and I literally mean today, Israel is facing a struggle more critical than any we have ever had to face before." Her fear and that of her military men, was of a possible Phase 4 in which missiles and MIGs might support an Egyptian assault across the canal and against Israel's Bar-Lev Line.

Strong Support. The U.S. displayed comparable concern and, some observers thought, mounting confusion. Three weeks ago, Secretary of State William Rogers put forward Washington's proposals for a peace settlement. Then two weeks ago, a White House adviser referred during a briefing for newsmen of the need to "expel" Soviet pilots and missilemen from Egypt. A day later, during his TV conversation on Cambodia, President Nixon worked the talk around to the Middle East, and then issued his strongest statement of support for Israel in some time.

In a burst of cold-war rhetoric, the President pointed out the Middle East not only supplied 80% of Europe's oil and 90% of Japan's, but also was "the gateway to the Mediterranean, the hinge of NATO, the gateway through the Suez Canal down into the Indian Ocean." He added, "We recognize that Israel is not desirous of driving any of the other countries into the sea. The other countries do want to drive Israel into the sea." For Arabs, who feel they are the ones being pushed out of Palestine by Israel, Nixon's recitation of the Israeli position was infuriating.

All in all, the White House approach seemed to be undercutting Rogers' peace initiative, either deliberately or accidentally. The State Department insisted gamely that Nixon was actually bulwarking Rogers' political initiative. White House statements, said a department spokesman, "were intended as a signal to the Russians and Arabs that they have an opportunity to grasp the Rogers proposals, but that there are also some less attractive alternatives."

Despite apparent readiness to keep the Middle East at boiling point, the Russians are preparing counterproposals to the U.S. peace plan. United Nations Secretary General U Thant last week described them as "concrete and realistic." They are unlikely to be spelled out, however, before Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser leaves Moscow, probably this week, following a lengthy visit with Soviet leaders.

So far, little has leaked out of Nasser's extended discussions with Communist Party Boss Leonid Brezhnev, Premier Aleksei Kosygin and Defense Minister Andrei Grechko. But Hassanein Heikal, Egypt's Minister of Guidance and editor of the Cairo newspaper Al Ahrarn, did provide one anecdote last week after returning home early from the conference. Nasser, wrote Heikal, opened the first session in the Kremlin by announcing that he had just heard from Cairo that two Israeli Phantoms and two Skyhawks had been shot down. Brezhnev exchanged glances with Grechko, revealing mutual surprise. The two men spoke some words in Russian. Then Brezhnev turned to Nasser and said: "But, my friend, your men shot down more than four planes. Our technicians report that the number of enemy planes you brought down was six." Grechko then produced a map of the Suez front and snowed where the Israeli planes were hit. "Your men have carried out a great action, and this is a fact. I can see no reason for reservation." Both sides, it turned out, were working from faulty intelligence. The final count of planes downed by missiles was two Phantoms.

Some Western diplomats have speculated that Nasser was prolonging his stay in Moscow because the Russians have decided to seek a Middle East cease-fire and are pressuring him to accept one. Another conjecture is that Nasser arrived with a military shopping list. If that is true, and the Russians fill it for him, the electronic summer could be followed by a bloody autumn.

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