Meanwhile, in Cuba ...

WHILE Israel's Moshe Dayan was alerting the world to the presence of two new Soviet-controlled fighter bases near the Suez Canal, U.S. military intelligence analysts last week were growing more and more concerned with evidence of increased Russian activity in Cuba. During the week, the number of surveillance flights by U.S. satellites and U-2 aircraft reached the highest level--at least one a day--since the Cuban missile crisis of October 1962.

Washington's intelligence community describes the recent activity as "wriggles" in Cuba. The wriggles appear to date from Soviet Defense Minister Andrei Grechko's trip to Havana last fall and a return visit to Moscow by Fidel Castro's brother Raul last spring. The Soviets agreed to refurbish the Cuban military with everything from new knapsacks to improved, longer-range SA-2 missiles, similar to the ones emplaced in Egypt. Cuba now has 24 SA-2 sites, each with six missiles. In addition, Moscow has upgraded Fidel Castro's air force by supplying a 25-plane squadron of F model MIG-21s, which boast greater speed, longer range and a bigger payload capacity than the D models previously supplied to Cuba.

Since April, Soviet long-range Tu-95 "Bear" bombers, with a 4 1/2-ton payload, have made six flights to Havana. The April flights are the first landings that Soviet heavy bombers have ever made outside the U.S.S.R. Washington doubts that the Russians are trying to sneak nuclear missiles into Cuba, as they did in 1962. More likely, the Tu-95 is carrying out reconnaissance missions and delivering military supplies. The flights may also be an effort to test the U.S. response; since there was no reaction following the first two flights in April, four more followed.

At the moment, the Soviets are mounting a large-scale mercy airlift to earthquake-struck Peru. Sixty-five flights will be made in all, many by the giant An-22, which, until the advent of the U.S.'s Lockheed C-5A last year, was the world's largest plane. Though U.S. sources discount rumors that the Soviets considered parachuting supplies to Communist guerrillas operating in Colombia and Venezuela, they suspect that the Soviets seized on the operation as an excuse for making proving flights along the Andes, a region in which they have had minimal flying experience. There is no doubt, furthermore, that the mercy planes have off-loaded cargo in Havana before continuing south to Peru. All told, three or four Soviet aircraft are now appearing on U.S. mainland radar screens every 24 hours, the largest number ever.

During their recent Okeana global naval maneuvers, the Soviets used the southern Cuban port of Cienfuegos for servicing and refueling their ships. Three Soviet submarines, one of them nuclear, as well as tenders and guided-missile boats, turned up in the Caribbean.

There are also reports that Soviet Komar-class missile boats have approached the waters off Key Biscayne--outside the twelve-mile international limit, but well within their missiles' 15-mile range of the Florida White House.

Next Sunday, Fidel Castro will celebrate the 14th anniversary of his attack on the Moncada barracks, the formal beginning of the Cuban revolution. At that time, he may well confirm the receipt of new Soviet military equipment. If nothing else, the recent flurry of U.S. surveillance flights should ensure that however significant the aid proves, the U.S. will not be in for any real surprises.

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