Eglibdan? Sudeglib? Or Libdangypt?

For a dozen years, Egypt's late President Gamal Abdel Nasser tried repeatedly to achieve some sort of Arab unity. He failed every time. In 1958, he forged a union with Syria and Iraq that endured for three contention-ridden years and is commemorated only by Egypt's continuing official designation as the United Arab Republic. At the same time he conceived of a looser association between Egypt and Yemen, but the plan got nowhere. Nasser's most realistic attempt, dreamed up a year ago, involved Egypt and its revolutionary neighbors, Libya and Sudan. In Cairo last week, rulers of the three countries met to see how much farther they could carry the idea.

Instant Power. Last December, when Nasser traveled to Khartoum and Tripoli to promote the three-way federation, he was met by frantic crowds screaming: "One people, one people, one people!" Until his death, Nasser met regularly with Sudanese Leader Jaafar Numeiry and Libya's Muammar Gaddafi. At last week's meeting, Numeiry, Gaddafi and Nasser's successor, Anwar Sadat, produced a communique pledging to seek eventual political federation. To this end, they set up a "Tripartite Political Command."

If the three countries ever did unite an enormous ifthe resulting North African nation would become a power to be reckoned with. It would be the world's 15th largest nation in population (50.5 million) and seventh in size (2,033,000 sq. mi.). Economically, it would have a solid base in Libya's $1 billion-a-year oil industry, Sudan's considerable agricultural potential and Egypt's manpower reserves. Militarily, the union could provide additional manpower and protected defensive positions in any new war with Israel.

Under present conditions, the West would be leary of this federation. The newer revolutionary governments of Libya and Sudan are more belligerent than the often embattled Egyptians. Gaddafi is particularly bellicose, not only toward Israel, but toward conservative Arab governments as well.

Second Thoughts. Gaddafi might goad the triumvirate into trouble. He has already ordered 110 French Mirage jetsand intimated that they might be turned over to Egypt. The French, who included a clause forbidding third-party use of the planes, are consequently beginning to drop hints of nondelivery. The Soviets, however, have already provided MIGs for Sudan and may well move in if the French renege.

Britain, too, is having second thoughts about the proposed sale of 188 Centurion tanks to Libya. British public opinion, already roiled by the prospect of a resumption of sales to South Africa, would strongly condemn the deployment of Centurions against Israel. But once again, Moscow may take up the slack if the British kill the sale.

The federation plan has already had a noticeable impact on other Arab states. Algeria, loath to see a huge new power rise on its eastern border, will court Libya next month, when President Houari Boumedienne visits Tripoli.

Syria, as a result of a coup in Damascus last week, may seek to join the new federation despite its geographic separation from the three other members. Defense Minister Hafez Assad, 40, staged the coup by quietly dispatching his intelligence agents to arrest President Noureddine Atassi and General Salah Jadid, who had been the strongman of Syria's extremist Baathist party. The more moderate Assad, who apparently moved to get Jadid before Jadid could get him, had been ordered to resign as Defense Minister by the Baathist congress. If he can keep control of the government, Assad might not only cooperate with the Cairo government, which the radical Baathists dislike, but might also amend Syria's adamant stance against peace with Israel.

Just Foreigners. For the moment, the other Arab states and the West as well can enjoy the luxury of skepticism about the federation. The obstacles in the way of the union are numerous. Both Numeiry and Gaddafi realize that an Egyptian President, whoever he is, would always dominate the alliance. Sudan fears that Cairo will dump its excess population on the spacious land.

Libya is already subsidizing Egypt out of oil incomes at a rate of $55 million annually, and Cairo is hungry for more. Libyans have been heard to murmur, moreover, that the Egyptian technicians sent to Tripoli last year are "just foreignersas bad as the Italians, the British or the Americans." In view of such feelings, the will-o'-the-wisp of Arab unity may prove as elusive as ever.

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