Shoring Up Sadat

Before a cease-fire halted the fighting in the Middle East in August, Egypt's eastern defenses included squadrons of Soviet-piloted MIG-21s at Kutamiya and Salhiya. The planes were piloted by members of a 150-man Russian force in Egypt. Since the ceasefire, the pilots and their planes at the forward bases have been pulled back to airbases at Cairo West, Inshahs and Alexandria.

The ostensible reason is that Egypt's Russian-designed missile network is now strong enough to guard against any new Israeli incursions into Egyptian airspace. The real reason for the pullback, say some intelligence sources, is that the Kremlin is worried about the viability of the new government of President Anwar Sadat and is taking steps to protect it--and also to protect Moscow's massive investment in Egypt.

The idea of a coup was remote during the 18-year reign of Gamal Abdel Nasser. But Sadat enjoys vastly less popular support than did Nasser. Therefore Soviet Premier Aleksei Kosygin, who hurried to Cairo for Nasser's funeral with his Deputy Defense Minister in tow, ordered a number of Russian moves to shore up Sadat. A new Russian military command was established, and Soviet "advisers" serving with the Egyptian army were directed to develop loyal cadres of Egyptians, who would take over--and report to the Russians--in the event that the Egyptian command structure was punctured by a coup.

Dead Wrong. In other moves, the Russians pulled back their airplanes and tightened their control of administration, operations and supplies at bases where Soviet troops are stationed. Cairo, Alexandria, Inshahs, Damietta, Aswan and Helwan are all protected by 15 to 20 batteries of SA3 missiles (with eight missiles to a battery). The batteries are on alert against any low-flying aircraft that might be carrying out ground-support missions for anti-Russian forces--and that could mean not only Israelis but also Egyptians carrying out a pro-Western coup. About 5,000 Russian infantrymen guard the SA3 missile sites, and they have been briefed on the need to watch against attacks of both kinds. According to some accounts, Sadat now has a group of Soviet bodyguards.

Most Arabists consider a coup against Sadat highly--if not absurd--unlikely. They also question whether the reported Russian military moves took place at all. They may be right in their skepticism. But three months ago some of those same observers also expressed doubt when the first reports appeared that the Soviets and Egyptians were violating the Middle East cease-fire by moving scores of missiles up to the Suez Canal. That time they were dead wrong.

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