Toward a Triumvirate

As East Germany's Eighth Party Congress got under way one morning last week, the 9 a.m. newscast from East Berlin reported that Walter Ulbricht was at that moment delivering the first address. In fact, Ulbricht was nowhere in sight. In a last-minute turnabout, a stand-in had been called on to read the speech for the man who symbolized East Germany for a quarter century and was replaced only last month as Communist Party chief by Erich Honecker. A half hour later, the East Germans somewhat lamely announced that Ulbricht was ill. Oddly enough, he had looked spry on TV only the day before as he greeted Communist leaders arriving at East Berlin's Schonefeld Airport.

There are three possible explanations for Ulbricht's absence. One is that he was really ill. That is credible enough for a man who will be 78 next week, though one political expert said: "Sick or not, he is out." Another is that he was actually sacked from his job as party boss late last month, despite East German efforts to make his replacement look like a smooth, amicable turnover. The West German monthly Deutschland Archiv, which specializes in East German affairs, maintains that Ulbricht had been under attack for his economic policies and, more important, had displeased Moscow by obstructing East-West diplomatic initiatives. The last and least plausible theory is that, unhappy with the minor role he had been given at the congress, Ulbricht stayed away on his own; the sulk could have been brought on when Soviet Party Leader Leonid Brezhnev arrived at Schonefeld and conferred his first fraternal bear hug and kiss on Honecker, leaving a crestfallen Ulbricht standing there on tiptoes.

There is considerable speculation that Ulbricht, who is still chairman of the Council of State, will step down from that post later this year. His most likely replacement would be Premier Willi Stoph, 56; Horst Sindermann, 55, is considered the probable successor to Stoph. Inasmuch as Honecker seems more inclined to adopt a collective leadership rather than Ulbricht's pattern of autocratic rule, experts foresee the emergence of a triumvirate composed of Honecker, Stoph and Sindermann.

Honecker's cautious approach was dramatically underlined during last week's congress. In a six-hour speech, he mentioned the Soviet Union no fewer than 55 times. He never brought up Ulbricht's old claim that West Berlin occupies East German territory and thus should be taken over by East Germany some day. Instead, Honecker described the city as having a "special political status," an approach that agrees with both the Soviet and Western viewpoints. He also dropped Ulbricht's insistence upon Western diplomatic recognition of East Germany as the prerequisite for Communist guarantees on Western access to West Berlin, which sits 110 miles inside the German Democratic Republic.

Improved Atmosphere. The change in the East German line made Brezhnev's speech at the congress all the more important. The Soviet party leader told delegates that the 15-month-old Big Four talks on West Berlin were reaching the conclusive stage. "I cannot speak for our partners [Britain, France and the U.S.] in the talks," said Brezhnev, "but we for our part are prepared to make efforts to bring this matter to a successful conclusion."

Meanwhile, during a five-day visit to the U.S., West German Chancellor Willy Brandt said in New York City that he was quite encouraged by Brezhnev's remarks. Once the Big Four have reached an understanding on improving the status of West Berlin and technical details have been worked out by East and West Germany, Brandt will submit the treaties of Moscow and Warsaw to the Bundestag for ratification. If the Big Four agreement actually helps the economic fate and morale of the 2,100,000 West Berliners, Brandt would be virtually assured of getting the treaties through the Bundestag. That, in turn, would greatly improve the atmosphere in Europe for new moves toward detente, including talks on mutual troop reductions.

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