Meanwhile, in Taiwan ...

Taiwan's first reaction to the President's decision to go to Peking was sharp and angry. The event, said Foreign Minister Chou Shu-kai, was "deplorable." Taiwan's Ambassador to the U.S. blasted Nixon's move. Outwardly, Chiang Kai-shek kept his dignified cool by spending some time at the Evergreen Hotel on Sun Moon Lake in central Taiwan, his favorite summer resort. But both Chiang and his son and heir, Chiang Ching-kuo, 61, who is stubborn and tough like his father, had no illusions about the erosion of the position on which they have built their lives. As Taipei's Ambassador to the U.N. complained candidly: "The U.S. has pulled the rug out from under our feet in the U.N. The damage to us is immeasurable." The proposed Nixon trip, he said, shows that "Communist intransigence pays off" and "hands a prestige victory to the Communists on a silver platter."

In contrast, the mood of the Chinese public on Taiwan has been remarkably contained and unruffled. Newspaper comment was relatively mild. The only protest gathering of any size was a polite half-hour demonstration at the American embassy by 30 college students. Many people, especially workers and farmers, either have not heard the news or show scant interest in it. While those who have heard it strongly oppose the Nixon move, and appear worried about future American intentions, there is little evidence yet of fever-pitch anger or anti-American feeling.

Surely Quit First. One reason may be that Nixon's news did not fall in a vacuum. The sensitive Nationalists have hung on each step that the President has made easing trade and travel with Peking. But his giant stride has called into question Taiwan's U.N. status, and touched off intensive political and diplomatic strategy sessions on the island.

The essence of the tacit new U.S. position is "dual representation," in which China would take the Security Council seat that Taiwan now holds as well as the Chinese seat in the General Assembly; Taiwan would also be seated in the General Assembly. The question of Taiwan's relationship to China proper presumably would be left for future decision, but obviously the Nationalist regime's claim to be the government of China would no longer be recognized. But while Taiwan has indicated that it would remain in the U.N. if China were admitted to the General Assembly, the nub of the question is whether Taipei will be able to retain its permanent seat on the Security Council. Only the Taiwan government's delay in advising the U.S. precisely what it will do is keeping the U.S. from announcing its own decision on Taiwan's dilemma.

The real problem may be keeping Taiwan from being expelled entirely. Says the Indian Ambassador to the U.N., Samar Sen: "[The U.S.] Government can simply explain that it is a question of 12 million Chinese or 750 million." One possible U.S. strategy: to agree that Chinese admission is no longer an "important" question and can be settled by a simple majority vote, but to insist that Taiwan's expulsion would be "important," thus requiring a two-thirds vote in the General Assembly. If it became clear that the Nationalists were nevertheless about to be expelled, they would almost surely quit first.

No Combat Forces. Beyond the U.N. issue, Taiwan's principal concern is fear of withdrawal of U.S. military support. It has a modern and powerful armed force, and Secretary of State William Rogers has assured the Nationalists that the U.S. will stand by its commitments to defend the island against any mainland attack. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week voted to repeal a 1955 congressional resolution that had redundantly empowered the President to use all means to defend Taiwan against attack. The vote on the repeal in no way abrogated the U.S. defense treaty with Taiwan. But Taipei is worried about the symbolic implications of any pullout of American forces stationed on Taiwan.

Seventh Fleet patrols have been withdrawn from the Taiwan Strait, and there are almost no combat troops among the 8,900-man U.S. military force on the island. The overwhelming majority of the uniformed Americans on the island are service and supply personnel providing back-up for troops in Viet Nam, and it is generally assumed that they will be withdrawn as the U.S. commitment in Southeast Asia winds down.

The largest outfit is the tactical airlift wing at Ching Chuan Kang, made up of about 4,500 men and four airlift squadrons with a total authorized capacity of 64 Hercules C-130 aircraft, used to transport troops, medical evacuees and heavy equipment. There are also about 1,300 men headquartered at Shu Lin Kou Air Station and a detachment of two F-4 Phantoms at Tainan. Nuclear weapons locations are, of course, among the most highly classified secrets, but it is almost certain that there are none on Taiwan.

The Nationalist leaders feel that all is not yet lost. Nixon's trip is still a long way off, and Washington insists that no deals have been made with Peking. In a personal letter to Chiang, Nixon reasserted that the U.S. is not going to abandon its longtime friend. That hope is not much to cling to, but it is all the Nationalist Chinese have.

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