Gasoline by an Open Fire

"The hot stage of the battle with Israel has begun," Egypt's President Anwar Sadat told university professors in Cairo last week. Sadat, preparing to leave on his second trip to the Soviet Union since he became President a year ago, wanted to remind the world that Egypt had friends in Moscow who would help him keep the stage very well heated indeed.

It certainly seemed that way when the two sides met in the Kremlin. Sadat and his entourage were greeted with Soviet-style bear hugs and busses from Party Secretary Leonid Brezhnev, Premier Aleksei Kosygin and President Nikolai Podgorny. And, while the Russians stressed their interest in a peaceful settlement in the Middle East, the communique that followed ten hours of talks mentioned "measures aimed at further strengthening the military might of Egypt." That announcement triggered the possibility of additional U.S. arms shipments to Israel.

Delivering more weapons to either side at this point is rather like stockpiling gasoline around an open fire. Sadat has pronounced 1971 the "year of decision" in the conflict with Israel, and officials in Jerusalem are all but daring him to try something. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State William Rogers is pressing his effort for an interim agreement that would reopen the Suez Canal and lead toward broader peace talks. While the Suez negotiations have got nowhere, both Egyptian Foreign Minister Mahmoud Riad and Israeli Foreign Minister Abba Eban have told Rogers, during meetings at his suite in Manhattan's Waldorf-Astoria, that their governments want the talks to continue.

Commitment to Balance. In this situation, Moscow's announcement of additional arms for Egypt infuriated the U.S. "This is a helluva time for them to do this," said one State Department official. Rogers sternly "deplored" the Soviet move "at this stage of sensitive negotiations" and warned: "We will have to consider, in view of this, and in line with President Nixon's commitment to maintain the balance of power in the area, the consequences, and make sure that the balance of power does not shift." In the Senate, meanwhile, 78 of 100 members signed a petition urging the Administration to resume delivery of Phantom jets to Israel.

Dim Outlook. If the Russians ship offensive weapons to Egypt, such as Sukhoi-11 fighter-bombers or troop-carrying helicopters, the U.S. may well reverse its decision not to send additional Phantoms to Israel. The Israeli air force now has 75 Phantoms; since December, Jerusalem has been trying to buy 72 more at the rate of two a month. The U.S. has been sitting on the request, probably in hopes of pressuring Israel into agreeing to a Suez settlement. In the wake of the Moscow communique, the Administration launched a new, intensified review of the arms balance, to be conducted by the National Security Council, Pentagon, State Department and CIA. One point for the reviewers to note: an Israeli report last week that a pair of Soviet Mach 3 MIG-23s based in Egypt and probably piloted by Russians, flew to within 20 miles of the Israeli coast on what might have been a photographic-electronic reconnaissance sweep but was primarily a political flight to demonstrate Soviet power. The "Foxbat," as the hot new MIG-23 is known to Western defense experts, can outfly and outclimb the Phantom.

The outlook, as a result, is not bright for a Suez settlement. If the U.S. agrees to send additional arms to Israel, the Rogers negotiations could well founder. Then it might only be a matter of time before either side decided to end the cease-fire that has lasted since August 1970. Presumably, the Soviets do not want an outbreak of fighting in the Middle East, since that could wreck President Nixon's summit trip to Moscow next May. At the same time, however, the Egyptians are pressing the Russians for more weapons because of another political fact of life. A U.S. presidential campaign is about to start, and at such times U.S. policy tends to take a strongly pro-Israel tack.

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