Imaginary Emergency

Running for a third term earlier this year, South Korea's President Chung Hee Park warned repeatedly that North Korea was poised for another attack on the South. "The situation," he said then, "is reminiscent of the eve of the Korean War." Last week, in a move that startled his allies as well as his countrymen, he declared a "state of national emergency" because, he said, "our country is confronted with a grave situation." In the process, he reinforced his personal grip on an already highly controlled democracy.

No Evidence. The emergency declaration stopped short of martial law, but its six points demanded that citizens refrain from "irresponsible arguments on national security matters" and warned them to be prepared "to concede some of the freedom" they now enjoy. Park also asked the National Assembly to give the government additional powers to protect military facilities, 1 milt publication of security information and commandeer private property, if necessary.

Park claimed that North Korea ' has nearly completed the preparation for invasion," and his Premier, Jong Pit Kim, reminded TIME Correspondent Herman Nickel that Northern troops would have to sweep only 30 miles to take Seoul "in a Sinai-style surprise attack." But in Washington, the State Department reacted with polite astonishment. "We have no evidence that an attack is imminent," a spokesman said, and his view was privately seconded by United Nations Command sources in Korea.

All visible signs, in fact, point to a lessening of tension on the divided peninsula. Incidents along the Demilitarized Zone and elsewhere have fallen off from 761 in 1968 (the year of the U.S.S. Pueblo seizure and the attempt on Park's life by a North Korean death squad) to only 53 so far this year. Representatives of the North and South Korean Red Cross are meeting at Panmunjom in discussions aimed at facilitating direct mail exchanges and family visits across the border.

Heavy Going. Why then would Park choose a time of improving relations to heighten the climate of crisis? One reason seemed to be that the cohesiveness of the Park regime depends on a continuing external threat. Despite his victory this year, Park's grip is far from absolute. Two months ago he shut down ten colleges and universities in the face of student demonstrations (TIME, Oct. 25).

Members of the opposition parties, which collected a combined 51.2% of the vote this year, and of Park's own government are already jockeying for the 1975 presidential election. Park, 54. will have been in power for 14 years by then, and he has said he will not contest the race, although last week's action aroused suspicion that he may not step down after all.

Park's problems are complicated by severe inflation (the price of rice has soared 25% this year) in the largely agricultural South. Though it has more than twice the North's 14 million inhabitants, the South still lacks the heavy industry that fuels the economy of North Korea.

Perhaps a more important reason for last week's move is Park's realization that South Korea will have to stand more on its own in the future. The U.S. has withdrawn 20,000 troops in the past year, although it has shelved further cutbacks among the remaining 40,000 until at least mid-1973. The prospect of closer relations between Washington and Peking poses new problems for South Korea, as it does for other U.S. allies in Asia.

As it happens, North Korea faces similar problems in the changing world. With his Soviet and Chinese allies striking more conciliatory postures in world affairs, the North's Premier Kim 11 Sung would be hard-pressed to win substantial backing from Moscow or Peking for the sort of massive invasion Park ostensibly fears.

Kim has repeatedly vowed that he will reunite Korea and force American "imperialists" to withdraw from the peninsula. But Kim's ground forces would find the going heavy. Seoul has about 650,000 well-trained men in its land, sea and air forces, an estimated 200,000 more than Pyongyang.

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