AUTO DEATHS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

ONE grisly economic indicator that appears on no official charts is again rising: car-accident deaths. Says Don Mela, the U.S. Department of Transportation's chief mathematical analyst: "If you make a graph plotting auto-accident deaths against the index of industrial production, you will find dips in production coinciding with dips in the rate of auto deaths." Thus, in the recession year of 1970, auto deaths dropped to 4.9 per 100 million miles traveled, from 5.3 in boom-end 1969. The death rate dropped a bit further last year, to an estimated 4.7, despite the economy's creeping recovery. But the fatality curve, behaving like a lagging indicator, has turned up again in the past five months as the recovery gathered momentum.

The link between prosperity and highway mortality has been known to experts for decades, but nobody has yet figured out the cause. Economic decline, for example, does not bring a drop in the number of miles driven. A reasonable explanation might be that recessions breed a general mood of caution that is reflected in driving habits, while upturns induce expansive feelings that may tempt some drivers to recklessness. But that is only speculation, and has not been substantiated by any studies.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.