Facing a Common Ruin

THANK GOD! exulted the banner headline on the London Sun. It was, in a way, an expression of the nation's collective relief. The massive march by Catholic civil rights protesters through the border town of Newry had been peaceful, with no repetition of Londonderry's Bloody Sunday, which saw 13 people killed by British army bullets. Later in the week, Ulster remained relatively calm during a "day of disruption" called by Catholics to mark the first six months of the government's policy of internment. Brief though it might turn out to be, the respite from violence and tension gave all parties concerned a chance to think again about whether a political solution was still possible for Northern Ireland.

Bloody Sunday had been a shattering experience for the government of Prime Minister Edward Heath, which has belatedly come to recognize Ulster as its most intractable problem. The tragedy destroyed Downing Street's comfortable belief that it had time on its side in dealing with I.R.A. extremists, and that political initiatives could be delayed until the spring.

Boycotts. The pressures on Heath are clearly rising. Labor Party Leader Harold Wilson now believes that reunification of the two Irelands is inevitable. He has branded the Tory government's internment policy a blunder, and has called on the government either to bring to trial the 760 suspected subversives now under detention or to release them. "Internment," he charged, "has proved to be a recruiting sergeant for the I.R.A."

Heath is also nettled by the growing hostility of the Irish Republic, which is giving increasing support to the North. With the Londonderry deaths, Britain's hopes of getting Ireland Prime Minister John Lynch's cooperation in curbing I.R.A. activities in the south virtually disappeared. Last week, reflecting the popular mood, charges were dropped in an Irish court against the leader of an eight-man Provisional I.R.A. team that allegedly fought a border skirmish with British troops last month. Boycotts of British goods have been reported throughout the Republic, and in some areas anti-British feeling is running so high that it could endanger Ireland's Common Market referendum this spring.

In Northern Ireland, the alienation of the Catholic third of the population is very nearly total. Adding to Britain's problems is the ever-present danger of a Protestant backlash. The Orangemen have been remarkably quiescent during the recent weeks of violence and terror, but militant Protestants were angry and restive over the Catholics' success at Newry in defying the Ulster government's ban on parades and demonstrations. Last week William Craig, a leader of hard-line members of the ruling Unionist Party, announced the formation of the "Ulster Vanguard," whose 60,000 members, he said, were prepared to make "the supreme sacrifice" to ward off any threat to the existence of Protestant-dominated Ulster as part of the United Kingdom.

Another man in the middle, Ulster's Prime Minister Brian Faulkner, has tried to serve as a balancing force against Protestant extremists, even though he has lost all credibility with the Catholics. He denounced the march at Newry last week as "an exercise in irresponsible brinkmanship. " But he also told Protestants that they must accept more Catholics in the Stormont government or "dig still deeper trenches for a long and bloody battle."

With Ulster on the verge of flames, what can Heath do? He is not yet ready to anger the Protestants by disbanding the Stormont government and imposing direct rule from London--but perhaps he may be pushed into taking over Stormont's police powers. He certainly cannot remove British troops without risking the possibility of civil war between Catholics and Protestants. Some Britons are advocating, however, that he set a date for withdrawing the army, thereby giving both sides a deadline for working out a settlement.

Bill of Rights. As a first step, he has virtually begged Northern Ireland's Catholic leadership to negotiate with him. "We are not asking them to give up their ideas about internment," said

Heath, "or their aspirations for a united Ireland. We are simply asking them to meet with other legitimate representatives of the people of Northern Ireland to discuss how conditions of peace can be restored." In addition, the British Prime Minister is said to be considering an easing of the internment policy, an offer of economic aid to reduce unemployment (now 8% in Ulster v. 4.3% in Britain as a whole), a bill of rights, and a guarantee that Catholics will henceforth have a proportionate role in the provincial government.

The proposals themselves are reasonable enough. The question is whether they come too late to save the two Irelands from what Scholar-Diplomat Conor Cruise O'Brien describes as the threat of "a common ruin, a sort of unity in the grave." The prospects are not encouraging. Even during a week of what these days is relative calm in Ulster, eight men were killed, 42 were injured and 28 bombs exploded.

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