End of the Coalition?

Italy last week seemed to be heading toward a political fate that most people did not want but no one seemed able to avoid: the dissolution of Parliament and a general election a year ahead of schedule. If that were to hap-!pen, it might well mean the demise of the quarrelsome, cumbersome and increasingly ineptcenter-left coalition that has governed the country for the past ten years.

The keystone of the coalition is the Christian Democratic Party--Italy's largest--which has dominated 27 consecutive governments since 1945. For the past decade, the party's strategy has been to try to hold power with the help of the Social Democrats and the farther left Socialists in order to keep the Communists, the nation's second largest political organization, out of office.

During the past year, though, the Christian Democrats have suddenly found their right flank exposed. In last June's local elections, the Neo-Fascist Movimento Sociale Italiano made substantial gains by preaching the need for more law-and-order. Now the M.S.I, is trying to rally Catholics to its banner on a referendum against a controversial divorce law that Parliament passed in 1970. In order to keep the vote of Italy's conservative Catholics, the Christian Democrats cannot openly oppose the referendum--but a waffling stance threatens their alliance with the Socialists, who are adamantly opposed to repeal of the law.

A more immediate cause of Christian Democratic worries was the defection from the coalition of another party --the slightly left-of-center Republicans, who withdrew last month to protest inflationary government spending. When the Republicans pulled out, Premier Emilio Colombo resigned from office, and Italy since then has been without effective government. President Giovanni Leone asked Colombo to try to form a new one. When he finally admitted failure, Leone turned to yet another Christian Democrat, Giulio Andreotti, the party's floor leader in the Chamber of Deputies.

At week's end Andreotti was holding summit talks with other leaders and tinkering with alternatives. The Christian Democrats still wanted another coalition. Even if Andreotti succeeded in forming one, no one gave such a government much chance to last. If he does not succeed, the most plausible alternative is that the Christian Democrats, who do not have a clear majority in the Chamber, might try to carry on as a one-party monocolore government which could be brought down at any time. That would simply be the next step toward dissolving Parliament and sending Italians to the polling booths.

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