How to Run for President in 1972

ED MUSKIE practices putting with Goofy and braces the wind in a swamp buggy. Scoop Jackson Indian-wrestles a brewery worker. Hubert Humphrey bobs and waves from a merry-go-round. George McGovern presses the flesh in a beauty parlor. John Lindsay savors the pure air of the scuba diver. On a loftier plane, the once and future candidate, Richard Nixon, meets the folks in China--and that momentous event, too, has its political significance. The great quadrennial callithump of politics, American style, is under way.

The President faces two challengers, Pete McCloskey on the left and John Ashbrook on the right, but no real challenge to his renomination. But the opposition camp is alive, in the best brawling tradition of the party of Andrew Jackson, with the sound of head-butting. A baker's dozen candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination under the stimulus of new party reforms that will take them more places than ever before.

The road to the Democratic National Convention at Miami in July is paved with a record 24 primary elections and a bewildering array of state caucuses, conventions and diverse devices to elicit grass-roots participation. No Democrat has the resources or the stamina to contest in each of the 50 states; picking and choosing where to run--and how hard--is all-important. Here, in brief, are the principal game plans:

For Edmund Muskie, the leader, the name of the game is momentum. He is doing his best to sweep the first four primaries in New Hampshire, Florida, Illinois and Wisconsin. He is most vulnerable in Florida; if he should stumble, he still stands a good chance to win in Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. Should he take the first four, or six out of the first seven, the Democratic race will probably be over. Hubert Humphrey hopes to spoil that strategy with his scenario: best Muskie in Florida even if George Wallace beats them both, stay a close second to Muskie in Wisconsin, then win in Pennsylvania. The odds are currently against Humphrey.

For a time, Henry ("Scoop") Jackson had the Democratic right to himself, talking defense up and radicals down, backing Nixon on Viet Nam and antibusing. Then along came George Wallace to steal his constituency and any chance Scoop had of taking Florida. Now Jackson is concentrating on Tennessee, and plans to challenge the bantam Southerner in his home state of Alabama. An upset win there could carry Jackson to the later primaries out West, where he is better known. Wallace figures to win Florida and stay in the race all the way, then come into Miami with as many as 250 delegates and in a position to bargain on issues like busing.

George McGovern's campaign is built on grass-roots organization; he started early and still has one of the best apparatuses across the country. But he is not expected to win a single major primary unless some of the other left-of-center candidates drop out. One of these is John Lindsay. As Johnny-come-lately to the party, Lindsay must score a number of primary upsets to have a chance at the nomination. He is zeroing in on three: Florida, Wisconsin and Massachusetts. Another rival is Shirley Chisholm. She is putting her limited funds where they will do the most good: among black voters in Florida and North Carolina. Her best bet is the last primary, in New York. Eugene McCarthy does not look strong anywhere. He will pose much more of a threat after Miami when, if he is not satisfied by the platform, he might lead a third party.

For reasons of size, sequence or diversity of electorate, seven primaries out of the 24 loom as most important to a Democratic aspirant. Only Front Runner Muskie and McGovern can afford to mount extensive campaigns in all seven, an enterprise that TIME correspondents calculate could cost more than $8,000,000. A situation report on the key seven:

NEW HAMPSHIRE, MARCH 7. Important psychologically because it is first, this primary presents dangers to Muskie. A slight shift of sentiment in the small state could undermine his standing in the polls, which currently give him 58% of the vote. The shift could go in any of a number of directions. McGovern is the most serious threat, though he is still far behind. Campaigning for the conservative vote, Los Angeles Mayor Sam Yorty is given some 3% in the polls, mainly because he is supported by the state's biggest paper, the Manchester Union Leader. Other candidates include Indiana Senator Vance Hartke, who is given .5% by the polls but may win more as he travels about the state in his friendly fashion; a virtual unknown from Connecticut named Ned Coll (TIME, July 19), who also is pegged at .5%; and the powerful chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Wilbur Mills, who has recently entered the race as a write-in candidate and apparently has ample funds. The question is not whether Muskie will win, but whether he will win by enough. Anything less than 50% would be dangerous.

FLORIDA, MARCH 14. All the chief Democratic contenders meet head-on in this primary, but the voters could not seem to care less. The candidates do not excite them. What does excite them is the statewide referendum on busing. As the most outspoken antibusing candidate, Wallace is considered to be in the lead. Tied for second place are Muskie and Humphrey.

Without much of a state organization, Humphrey is campaigning hard and reminding the party how much he has done for it in the past. Jackson is confining his campaign to areas where he is likely to do best; the trouble is, those are the areas where Wallace is strong. As for Wallace, he has no fixed plan. He simply invites the folks who love him best to come out and vote for him. No doubt they will, but Muskie or Humphrey may sneak by George.

ILLINOIS, MARCH 21. This is really a two-part primary. One part is a mere "beauty contest," in which voters express a preference for one candidate over another for the nomination. Here Muskie confronts only McCarthy. The Maine man should take a handsome 70% of the vote in this part.

But in the second portion of the contest, voters elect the delegates to Miami from each of the state's 24 congressional districts. These are the votes that will count at the convention in July, and the most important thing about them is that reform has largely pried them loose from the iron grip of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. The uncommitted slates that the mayor has assembled in Chicago will probably win handily, but most of the slates elsewhere in the state are up for grabs, and McGovern is very much in this battle.

Muskie is the favorite. Along with McGovern, he has fielded complete slates of delegates in most of the state's districts, though he has stayed out of Chicago in deference to Daley. But Muskie's popularity has got him in trouble in some districts, where there are more people running pledged to him--many on their own initiative --than there are delegate slots to be filled. If Muskie's vote is diluted enough through overkill, McGovern delegates might win even though they receive less than the total Muskie vote.

WISCONSIN, APRIL 4. This primary is the traditional graveyard of presidential hopefuls. The voters are unpredictable, partly because they are so varied, ranging from farmers and blue-collar workers to blacks and university liberals. Like Illinois, Wisconsin has both a statewide beauty-contest ballot and district selection of delegates. With the backing of most of the state's top political pros, Muskie is expected to capture at least a third of Wisconsin's 67 delegates.

Humphrey has little organization, but if he starts campaigning in his customary flavorful style, he may well change some minds. McGovern will get a hard-core liberal vote. Lindsay has made an impression by strenuous campaigning, such as sloshing through a barnyard in subzero weather to admire dairy cows. A few pundits give him an outside chance to sweep the presidential-preference vote, but most think Muskie will take the popularity contest.

PENNSYLVANIA, APRIL 25. The race is between Muskie and Humphrey, with Muskie out in front. He has cut into Humphrey's labor constituency, not because he is especially admired but because he looks like a winner. The leadership of both the United Auto Workers and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees have endorsed Muskie. I.W. Abel, president of the United Steelworkers, is backing Humphrey, but has stopped short of endorsing him.

If COPE, the political arm of the AFL-CIO, also abstains, it will be a blow to Humphrey. Pennsylvania Governor Milton Shapp is in Muskie's corner. Except for Muskie, McGovern is the only candidate to have entered delegate slates in all the districts; but the polls still give him a mere 2% of the vote. The remaining candidates get less.

CALIFORNIA, JUNE 6. By the time this primary rolls around, some candidates are likely to have left the race. It will probably be hotly contested, nevertheless, because the winner takes all its 271 delegates--the juiciest plum along the campaign trail. So far, Muskie holds the lead. The latest field poll shows him ahead of Humphrey, with 28% to 23% of the vote. Lindsay and McCarthy are each given 9%. McGovern trails with 7%. Only Muskie and McGovern have as yet been doing any serious campaigning in California. Still, in a state that appreciates a dazzling personal campaign style, Lindsay has a chance to score an upset.

NEW YORK, JUNE 20.

In his home state, Lindsay is near the bottom of the list of favored candidates. The New Democratic Coalition, a group of Manhattan and suburban liberals, recently endorsed McGovern and gave Lindsay a minuscule 1.4% of its vote. These should be the people who support a Lindsay candidacy; elsewhere in the state he is liked even less.

Muskie has won the endorsement of the great majority of county leaders and other key political figures. His liberalism helps him in New York City, while his New England image wins friends upstate. Humphrey, if properly fortified by earlier primary victories, could give him trouble. Jackson has some strength upstate and Chisholm among blacks in the cities. But here, again, Muskie looks like the winner.

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