From New Hampshire To Florida

Edmund Muskie was haggard and weary as the New Hampshire primary ended. He concluded his victory speech with what sounded like the grumblings of a man wary of being mugged from behind. "The one sensation that I feel most of all almost every day," he said, "is a twitching between my shoulder blades." That twitching will become more pronounced if he suffers another primary setback this week in Florida, where a very poor showing could deal him a serious blow.

As the favorite son-in-law candidate from next door Maine, Muskie had to win big in New Hampshire. His disappointing 48% of the vote raised doubts as to whether he could sew up the Democratic nomination before the convention. One reason why Muskie slumped in New Hampshire was his effort to campaign simultaneously in several other states with upcoming primaries, particularly Florida. An easily fatigued campaigner who complains about his "mad schedule," he spent only 13 days stumping in New Hampshire this year as compared with Senator George McGovern's 24, thus spreading himself too thin. McGovern, on the other hand, steadily built up his share of the vote from 18% a month and a half ago to an impressive 37% in the end.

Los Angeles Mayor Sam Yorty, Indiana Senator Vance Hartke and House Ways and Means Chairman Wilbur Mills, a late-starting write-in entry, drew a total of 13% of the vote and little encouragement. On the Republican side, Congressmen Paul McCloskey (20%) and John Ashbrook (10%), attacking the President from the left and right respectively, failed to mount any serious threat. Looking on from afar, Richard Nixon weighed in with a comfortable 69%. Only three days after the primary, McCloskey dropped out of the race.

Muskie's cause was not helped in the final days of the campaign by his weepy response to the attacks of William Loeb's Manchester Union Leader. When it became apparent that his margin was fraying, Muskie belatedly returned to the state for five last days of blitz campaigning. In a campaign devoid of any single burning issue, he abandoned his customary pitch as a "national" candidate and unabashedly sought support on the basis of "regionalism." Alluding to the New England "sense of community," he told a gathering in the paper-mill town of Berlin: "If I can't get help from my friends close to home, I don't know where to expect it."

Despite Loeb's attacks, Muskie did expect help from Manchester, the state's largest city and a Democratic stronghold that accounted for 20% of the party's total vote last week. Muskie barely held his own, managing to eke past McGovern only by the scant margin of 511 votes. Nobody had to tell Muskie that breaking even in city wards is not the way a Democrat wins nominations, much less the presidency.

Two Ends. Claiming support that was "both broad and deep," McGovern not only fared well in the working-class wards but swept 80% and 72% of the vote respectively in the college towns of Hanover (Dartmouth) and Durham (University of New Hampshire) and carried such suburban areas as Bedford and Amherst. And, while topping McCarthy's 1968 showing by more than 7,000 votes, he also managed to make off with at least five of the 20 convention delegates that Muskie figured he had locked up.

The key to McGovern's strong showing was his youthful organization. In times past, the Senator's Washington staff had trouble arranging its office seating arrangements, let alone a campaign. Now, in a decentralization move that was probably a necessity and became a virtue, the state operations are run largely by local recruits who know their territory. In each of his forays into New Hampshire, for example, McGovern was wisely advised to stop off in Boston and hold a press conference on drugs, unemployment and property taxes. The tactic accomplished two ends: it helped erase his image as a one-issue candidate, and the Boston TV coverage was beamed widely and free of charge into New Hampshire.

In Washington, the consensus was that McGovern's showing in New Hampshire was impressive but largely inconclusive, especially since eight of the baker's dozen Democratic candidates did not even bother to enter the New Hampshire primary.

Florida could be a watershed for Muskie, but it need not be for McGovern, whose prospects there were never promising. All the chief Democratic contenders were entered in the Florida primary, and a candidate's chances hinged mainly on his stand on a hotly contested statewide busing referendum. As the most volatile of the antibusing proponents, George Wallace expected to ride out an easy victory. Far more interesting was who finished in the race after Wallace, and here Muskie faced Hubert Humphrey, his old running mate, for the first time.

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