Teddy Would Have Won

The biggest upset of the 1972 presidential campaign so far is George McGovern's 30% plurality win in the Wisconsin primary. But imagine the general astonishment if the morning-after tally had read: Kennedy, 32%; McGovern, 19% ; Wallace, 16% ; Humphrey, 12% ; Muskie, 7% ; and Jackson, 6%.

That would have been the outcome, had Edward Kennedy been on the ballot, according to the TIME/Yankelovich survey of 382 voters who were interviewed as they were leaving the polling booths. No fewer than 122 of them would have preferred Kennedy to the choice they made. Giving their votes to Teddy and taking them away from the candidates they actually voted for produces the lineup in which Kennedy wins overwhelmingly.

The survey shows that a Kennedy candidacy would have caused the largest desertions among Humphrey (42%) and McGovern (36%) voters, although 29% each of Muskie and Wallace supporters would also have switched to the Massachusetts Senator. Kennedy's name would have had the most effect in changing the votes of blue-collar workers (43%) and Democratic voters (39%). Only 7% of the cross-over Republican voters in Wisconsin would have selected Kennedy. Interestingly, if he had been on the ballot it would have made a greater difference to the middle-age and older voters (34%) than to the new and young voters (28%), suggesting that the young would have stayed loyal to McGovern. Remarkably, considering Chappaquiddick, considerably more women (39%) than men (27%) in the sample would have gone over to Kennedy.

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