What Is Giap Up To?

One by one, the 20 or 25 Communist bloc ships that had been steaming through the South China Sea toward North Viet Nam changed course. Three of them picked their way to anchorage in Hong Kong's crowded Victoria Harbor: Gotze Deltchev, flying the Bulgarian flag, and the East German freighters Heinz Kapelle and Gera, their main decks crowded with trucks that were to have been unloaded at Haiphong. When would the ships get under way again? Shrugged one East German seaman: "Not until the American offensive ends."

In Hue, where South Vietnamese forces waited for the long expected Communist assault, ARVN soldiers casually siphoned gasoline out of their trucks and Jeeps in broad daylight. They knew that they could sell the gas to civilians for 40 piasters (33-c-) a liter. In some areas of South Viet Nam, the word was out that the North Vietnamese, short of fuel for their thirsty trucks and Soviet-made tanks, were paying up to 80 piasters for gas.

AS the all-out North Vietnamese offensive entered its eighth week, the gloom that had pervaded Washington and Saigon earlier in the month began cautiously to lift. Though the expected Communist strikes in the north and in the Central Highlands had yet to come, officials took comfort in the fact that South Viet Nam's battered armed forces seemed to be holding together, at least for the moment. There was also hope that the U.S. mining of North Viet Nam's harbors and the resumption of large-scale bombing of its military and logistics targets might prove as effective as President Nixon had promised. Admiral Elmo Zumwalt, who as Chief of Naval Operations is ultimately responsible for the massive armada (six carriers, five cruisers, 40 destroyers) that is enforcing Nixon's quasi-quarantine, declared that the flow of supplies into North Viet Nam would be "a trickle from now on."

Out of Steam? The most sanguine Administration assessment came from Spiro Agnew--not exactly a disinterested observer. After participating in Tokyo ceremonies that formally returned Okinawa to Japanese control, the Vice President paid a three-hour visit to Saigon. Back in Washington, he briefed President Nixon on his trip, then told newsmen that Nixon's actions had reduced Communist capabilities to "only a couple more months of activity." Added Agnew: "We're coming out of the woods."

But were the North Vietnamese really running out of steam? To be sure, the elements of eleven divisions that General Vo Nguyen Giap has in South Viet Nam have been slow to capitalize on their successes in the Central Highlands and in the northern provinces. NVA tanks and artillery challenged the scanty defenses of Kontum last week, and the long-awaited attack on that vulnerable Highlands city might not be far off. But there was no sign of the expected push on Hue, the former imperial capital 24 miles south of Quang Tri, which is believed by allied strategists to be the main target of Giap's offensive. The four North Vietnamese divisions known to be in the area have made themselves so scarce that ARVN units have recently been dropping pajamaclad scouts into the countryside. Their assignment: find the evasive, ominously quiet enemy troops and call in the fighter bombers and B-52s.

"Smart" Bombs. Allied intelligence has been far from exact in predicting Giap's tactical efforts, and last week's pause in the action led to two quite contrary estimates of the battlefield situation. In the pessimistic view of the lull, Giap has not run out of steam but is slowly building his offensive to a new boil--timed, perhaps, to coincide with Nixon's arrival in Moscow. The other, more optimistic view is that the intensive American bombing has taken a fearful, debilitating toll of NVA men and materiel. In this view, moreover, the mining of seven Northern harbors --even though it has yet to affect the North Vietnamese invasion directly --has forced the Communist commanders to husband their remaining fuel and ammunition.

New provisions, it is clear, are not getting through: the U.S. near-blockade has effectively sealed the ports--at least so far. None of the 27 cargo ships that remained in Haiphong harbor after the mines went "live" on May 11 have even tried to get to sea. Last week Anthony Lewis of the New York Times reported from North Viet Nam a Communist boast that the mines were being cleared from Haiphong and that ships were moving in and out (see THE PRESS). U.S. officials conceded that light wooden fishing vessels, which do not trigger the mines, pass in and out of the harbors. But they flatly denied that the North Vietnamese have made any effort to sweep the mines, or that any large ships have dared to challenge the quarantine.

As for the new bombing campaign, U.S. pilots in the first eleven days achieved an impressive score: 208 trucks, 116 boats, 201 railroad cars, 59 warehouses, 114 cuts in road or rail lines, plus the destruction of a key pipeline that is used to carry motor fuel to the Demilitarized Zone. Using laser-guided and electro-optical "smart" bombs, they also smashed several bridges, among them the 540-ft. rail-highway span at Thanh Hoa, which had withstood innumerable attacks during Operation Rolling Thunder from 1965 to 1968. How much of a real difference all this would make remained to be seen.

Whatever the North Vietnamese supply problems, Giap's predilection for lavish applications of firepower has not yet been curbed. North Vietnamese artillerymen have continued to pummel An Loc, the battered, fundamentally insignificant plantation town 60 miles north of Saigon that South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu has ordered held "at all costs." Resuming efforts to break the seven-week-old siege of An Loc and its stubborn, 6,000-man garrison, the South Vietnamese last week airlifted two infantry regiments up Highway 13 to within a mile or so of the town. Meanwhile, the main ARVN relief column, which had been stalled several miles south of town, resumed its advance along Highway 13.

As it inched ahead, the 10,000-man column encountered what one U.S. adviser called "the toughest fighting I've ever seen." One ARVN battalion took 100 casualties in four days. The vicious enemy fire on Highway 13 came from well-entrenched North Vietnamese troops, who seemed to be following a familiar strategy. In past set-piece battles --at Dak To, for instance, and Khe Sanh--Giap's forces would surround allied troops, dig in deeply enough to neutralize American airpower, and then hack away at the relief forces. Though at week's end the ARVN relievers were close to what would surely be billed as a great victory at An Loc, it would be a costly triumph indeed.

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