A TIME Election Survey: Broadening the Base

For George McGovern, victory in California meant more than capturing the largest block of delegates so far to the Democratic Convention. It signified an important broadening of his base among voters who until California have been largely counted in the camps of Hubert Humphrey and other contenders. McGovern made major gains among organized labor, the elderly, blacks, Chicanos, the poor--groups whose support he needs in order to have any chance against Nixon. So indicates a TIME/ Yankelovich survey of 570 California voters, who were interviewed as they were leaving the polling booths. The findings:

THE BLOCKS. As expected, McGovern got a lion's share (74%) of votes cast by those in the 18-to-24 age group, who constituted a sixth of all Democrats casting ballots in the primary. Surprisingly, union members gave McGovern a 47%-to-42% edge over Humphrey, despite the fact that most of the state's labor leaders backed Hubert. Equally new in primary-voting patterns was the South Dakota Senator's popularity with blacks and Mexican-Americans, among whom he tied with Humphrey. Though he carried the senior citizen vote by a 2-to-1 margin in some earlier primaries this year, Humphrey's lead dropped off sharply to a slim 7% winning margin among voters aged 55 and over.

THE ISSUES. The survey shows that the issue that most concerns Californians is Viet Nam. Of those who voted for McGovern, 82% did so at least in part because of his antiwar stance. But the environment, unemployment, welfare and tax reform were also of prime interest to the McGovern voter. In contrast, 51% of Humphrey's supporters voted for him because they felt that he was the more experienced candidate, while another one-third were simply registering their strong opposition to McGovern. Nearly half of the non-McGovern voters thought that he was "too far out" on abortion and marijuana.

THE TV DEBATES. About 60% of the

Democratic voters polled had watched at least one of the three network-television debates of the campaign, and one-third of these viewers thought the confrontations had influenced their votes. Of this group, a slim majority (55%) went to Humphrey. Interestingly, 67% of voters 55 years and older watched the debates, while only 52% of the 18-to-24 age group did.

LOOKING AHEAD. A sizable portion of those interviewed, 43%, foresee a wide-open convention next month; 30% still suspect that the nominee will be selected on the basis of back-room deals. The voters split on the question of throwing support to the other candidate if their own man fails in his convention bid. Surprisingly, Non-Candidate Edward Kennedy, who might have narrowly won the race by taking equal numbers away from both Humphrey and McGovern, would be welcomed as a compromise candidate by only 17%. As for George Wallace, 38% thought his views should be given a place in the party platform, and 26% would simply ignore him at Miami. Roughly 10% said that the Alabama Governor should be considered for the second spot on the ticket, and about the same number advocated his censure.

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The survey shows that if McGovern is the party nominee, he will face a major task in winning the loyalty of Humphrey voters, 41% of whom will vote for President Nixon if McGovern is nominated--or so they say now. Even more Humphrey voters, 52%, said they were satisfied with Nixon's performance, while 72% of the McGovern voters believe that things are going badly in the U.S. Overall, two-thirds of those interviewed would vote for either candidate against Nixon in November.

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