The Republicans' Orderly Beat

NATURALLY enough, the convention of the party in power marches to a steadier beat. In or out, modern Republicans have a tradition of tidier selections--with 1964 perhaps a recent exception--than those of the brawling, robust Democrats. With a sitting and seemingly eminently re-electable President in command, the Republicans are again heading for what looks like a relatively bland $1.5 million affair in Miami Beach. By all indications, it will be a pageant of party unity, a coronation rather than a contest, a subdued, elegantly appointed spectacular in which the only mystery is the question of the vice-presidential nomination. No major fights, no challenges are in the offing. Richard Nixon has all the votes he needs for renomination. "The President," says Party Chairman Robert Dole, "has got the delegates, and there aren't going to be any credentials fights, so it's going to be a rather harmonious meeting."

The party has already weathered one unforeseen development this year: under the shadow of the ITT affair and amid troubles with local convention facilities, the Republicans switched the convention site from San Diego, the city the President had personally picked. Everything else is well in hand at this point, however, and Richard Nixon, having brushed off the challenges of Liberal Paul (Pete) McCloskey Jr. and Conservative John Ashbrook, will come to Florida in firm control of a united party, assured that no major surprises await him.

The Nixon stamp will be all over this convention. The platform will be a Nixon document outlining what the White House sees as the key issues of the fall campaign: the danger of excessive defense cuts will be one of its most visible planks. Congressman John J. Rhodes of Arizona, the chairman of the Platform Committee, has announced three days of hearings for mid-August; his group has also sent out 60,000 questionnaires to people all across the country, Democrats and Republicans alike, to gather views on such controversial subjects as amnesty, Viet Nam, marijuana, crime and health insurance. The White House will have the final word on all of the planks, just as it is even now keeping a firm hand on convention management. Says White House Aide Harry Dent: "It's going to be pretty well automated; Rockefeller's right, Reagan's right, and when they're right there can't be much wrong."

Favorite. Only one colorful uncertainty remains: the vice-presidential nomination. Will Spiro Agnew be chosen again? Or will he be dumped at five minutes to twelve, withdrawing as soon as he learns of the President's wishes? And if that should indeed be the case, will John Connally be the man? There is no doubt that despite his resignation from the Treasury, the Texan remains very much a White House favorite, as evidenced by Nixon's sending him on a 15-nation tour as his personal representative.

Whoever the vice-presidential nominee, the final choice will be a thoroughly political one, and the President does not have to--and probably will not --make it until he finds out who his Democratic opponent is. There are some who believe that if the Democrats nominate George McGovern, Nixon will opt for Connally, in the hope not only of carrying Texas (the only Southern state that went Democratic in 1968) come November but also of picking up the votes of disgruntled conservative Democrats. He might even advertise Nixon-Connally as a fusion ticket of Republicans and Democrats united against a radical McGovern candidacy. The same theory expands to speculate that if the Democratic standard bearer is Humphrey, Agnew will probably remain on the Republican ticket.

Still, many G.O.P. politicians believe that Agnew retains the inside track. They think that dumping him would anger many Republican conservatives as well as big contributors; if the decision went against Agnew, it would seem to make sense to arrive at it early and gently. Every day that passes without a move from the President thus anchors Agnew. Apparently certain that it will be Agnew again, the Republican Convention management has booked him and his staff into the President's own headquarters hotel, the Doral On-the-Ocean, and there has been no unfavorable reaction to that from the White House.

For all the cut-and-dried aspects of their convention, the Republicans still intend to prove that, as Robert Flanigan of Colorado, the Program Planning chairman, puts it, they are "alive, vibrant and very much with it." They are planning for only three, not the usual four days of convention, mainly because so little needs to be hammered out. They intend to keep delegates informed and entertained with a complex system of audio-visual presentations in the convention hall. There will be fewer delegates than at the Democratic Convention, and their mix will be more homogeneous.

The Republicans have had their own reform proposals since July 1971, but unlike the Democrats' McGovern Rules, theirs have lacked teeth and have consequently not amounted to much more than recommendations to the state parties. Nonetheless, there are going to be more Republican women in Miami Beach, more Republicans under 30, more blacks and other minority delegates than at the 1968 convention. Four years ago, barely 1% of the delegates were under 30, just over 2% black; this year's figures will perhaps go as high as 15% young and 10% black. Nevada, for instance, will send twelve delegates, among them two women, as well as an 18-year-old who will serve on the convention's Platform Committee; one Nevada alternate is 18, black and Catholic. National Republican staffers, in short, are pleased and surprised so far by the state parties' response to the modest call for reform.

Says Wisconsin's Robert Knowles, the G.O.P.'s convention manager: "We are going to try and make it look like an entirely different, a more orderly convention. Our role is to attempt to display our party as a unified, businesslike party that is capable of running the country."

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.