Hart on How to Beat Nixon

The principal commander of McGovern's national campaign will be Gary Hart, 34, the attractive Denver lawyer who has been instrumental in winning his chief's amazing series of primary victories. In Miami Beach, he told TIME Correspondent Dean Fischer and a group of TIME editors the outline of his strategy to defeat Richard Nixon:

HART insists that McGovern will not write off any region.

"We're going to analyze each state independently. There are changes in mood taking place that are difficult to analyze. Where the mood is right--and it seems to vary almost state by state--we'll go in and try to win it."

The starting point for the strategy of concentration is the states that Hubert Humphrey won or narrowly lost in 1968, such as California and Pennsylvania. Then there are "second-and third-level states," as Hart describes them, where he believes Nixon is vulnerable and where McGovern could reverse Republican victories of 1968. Among them: Wisconsin and Oregon and possibly a couple of states in the South and in the Rocky Mountains. Hart professes to see hope for McGovern even in South Carolina. "I talked to Governor John West a couple of weeks ago, and he said that if we came in there and put together an organization like we've done elsewhere, we might even carry the state." In addition, Hart contends that McGovern's pollster, Pat Caddell, 22, has found evidence of McGovern popularity among supporters of George Wallace. "All of our analyses show that for a lot of Wallace voters, McGovern was their second choice," says Hart. "Given enough time, McGovern would begin to erode Wallace's populist support. The Senator goes a giant step forward in answering the concerns that Wallace has raised."

Hart acknowledges the problems of seeking a reconciliation with the Daleys and Meanys, but he hopes for a back-scratching kind of relationship eventually: "I'd guess that Daley will at least remain neutral, or else give us some cooperation." The situation with Meany is similar. One reason for Hart's optimism is that he perceives the Democratic opposition to McGovern to be psychological rather than ideological. "It's a struggle for power and control," he explains. "It's the old versus the new, the passing of an order. To a large degree, the opposition is transitional." Caddell's polls continue to show that "there are a tremendous number of people who don't know who George McGovern is."

Hart wants McGovern to start campaigning before Labor Day in a low-key August campaign, avoiding big rallies and meeting voters informally. "The idea is that McGovern doesn't drop out of sight and concede exposure for six weeks to Richard Nixon," says Hart.

While McGovern has problems of reconciliation with the old pros of the Democratic Party, he also has a few difficulties with the kids who were attracted to him by his apparent ideological purity. Hart concedes that the changing nature of the campaign, the increasing isolation of McGovern from his zealous admirers and his greater reliance on older veterans have had a negative impact. "There is some feeling that the campaign has got so big that it's lost its direction, if not its soul," he says. "A volunteer can no longer run up and rap with McGovern in a hotel lobby for five minutes the way he used to. In the next few weeks, we have to get the message across to the grass-roots workers that they will be needed," says Hart. "If they think we don't need them, then they don't need us. That word spreads very fast."

Money is another headache. Anticipating a Republican kitty of $35 million to $40 million, Hart is hoping the Democrats can raise $25 million for McGovern. "I think we could defeat Nixon for under $25 million." Of that, $6,000,000 to $8,000,000 could be raised by the direct-mail method used successfully during the primaries, another $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 from small contributions, including concerts, plus loans. About $ 12 million would still be needed from big contributors. Hart insists that McGovern is trying "to get away from the idea that if you give a lot of money you get an ambassadorship," but he is confident that "it will be a lot easier to raise money against Nixon than it was raising money against twelve other Democratic candidates."

In Hart's judgment, the ultimate test is how the voters respond to the personalities of the two candidates. He sees advantages for McGovern in a race against Nixon. "The Republicans will be negative, hostile and acrimonious," he says. "McGovern will be emphasizing positive programs, hope and reconciliation. It comes down to whether you like Nixon or you don't. His image is set. By the third week in October, I would guess that Nixon will be very much on the defensive. The polls will show Nixon and McGovern running even. He'll try to pull a rabbit out of the hat, but what can he do? Go to the moon?"

There are, of course, many things Nixon can do. Get the U.S. totally out of Viet Nam by November, for one. But Hart's optimistic views illustrate the unbounded confidence of the McGovern camp on the morning after triumph in Miami Beach.

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