Sobering Victory

The modern headquarters of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party was unusually subdued for a victory celebration. The banzais were perfunctory and beer toasts stood untouched. Even the usually ebullient party leader, Premier Kakuei Tanaka, looked less than exuberant as he painted in the missing eye on a huge daruma doll, a traditional rite signifying victory or success.*

The reason for the gloom was a disappointing showing in last week's national elections for the lower house in the Diet. Even though the party was returned to power with an absolute majority, it dropped 17 seats in the 491-seat house. The loss was only partly recouped when eleven successful independents joined the Liberal Democrats after the election, giving them a final total of 282 seats.

The opposition Socialist and Communist parties meanwhile celebrated striking gains. Socialist Party Chairman Tomomi Narita announced that a new wave in Japanese politics had finally arrived. At Communist Party headquarters, thunderous banzais echoed from the hall.

Both parties had plenty of reason to celebrate. The Socialists, who had lost more than a third of their seats in the 1969 election, made a strong recovery, winning 118 seats. The Communists amazed even themselves by increasing their strength from 14 to 38 seats, giving them genuine opposition strength for the first time.

The strong leftist showing--though not serious enough to dent the personal popularity of Tanaka, 54, who took office five months ago and drew enthusiastic crowds during the campaign--means that the new Premier will face much tougher opposition in the Diet, which is scheduled to convene this week. The fact that the Communists will now be represented on the crucial steering committee will make it harder for the government to adhere to its legislative calendar. The Communists intend to probe more deeply into scandals linking the Premier to alleged real estate deals. In Tanaka's own party, his rival for the leadership, former Foreign Minister Takeo Fukuda, 67, emerged with the largest single faction and undiminished ambition to take over, should the Premier make a misstep.

The net effect was to put a brake on the entrenched power of the conservatives, who have ruled Japanese politics for 24 years. That was exactly what many voters intended. As Yasuo Onomichi, 27, a Tokyo office worker, put it: "I voted for the Communists although I don't like them. The L.D.P. is too strong. It must be checked." One issue on which the electorate seemed resigned was the widespread practice of illegal spending on entertaining voters and sometimes making outright cash purchases of votes. In pre-election campaigning, one candidate, for instance, reportedly spent $20,000 to entertain an entire village of 1,500 for one night at a hot-springs resort.

The real lesson for the Liberal Democrats could be read in their slipping vote in the rural areas, where they draw a major part of their strength. Tanaka's pet plan of retto kaizoron (literally, rebuilding the archipelago) Calls for the dispersal of industry away from the congested Pacific coastal belt. But rural voters, already concerned about a massive land grab by industrialists, heeded the opposition cry that the plan would merely spread pollution across the entire country. They gave a significantly higher number of votes to the left--an obvious warning for Tanaka to move cautiously on the plan.

* The daruma doll is regarded as a good luck charm because it is made with a weighted, rounded bottom and thus always returns to an upright position. Traditionally, the doll is purchased without eyes. At the beginning of a new venture, the owner paints in one eye. When he is successful, the doll is given its other eye.

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