Time's Board of Economists: Sizing Up the Year

TIME'S Board of Economists: Sizing Up the Year AWARE that their science is not an exact one, economists are frequently unhappy at having their forecasts accepted as gospel. Still, TIME's Board of Economists has had a remarkable record of accuracy.

In 1970 its members' composite prediction for the following year was that the gross national product would reach $1,049.2 billion and unemployment would peak at 6% to 6.2%. The actual figures at the year's end: $1,050 billion and 6.2%.

In 1971, the board's estimate for 1972 was that the G.N.P. would rise by $100 billion , unemployment would average 5.6% and profits would increase 15%. The correct figures are: just over $101 billion, 5.6% and 15%. This year's offering:

1973 Otto Eckstein Alan Greenspan David Grove Walter Heller Robert Nathan Joesph Pachman Beryl Sprinkel G.N.P. $1,262 $1,266 $1,266 $1,267 $1,263 $1,267 $1,267 $1,268 (in billions)

G.N.P. Increase $111 $114 $113 $115 $112 $115 $115 $107

Real Growth 5.9% 6.4% 6.1% 6.5% 6.0% 6.5% 6.6% 5.8%

Inflationary 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% Growth

Unemployment 5% 4.75% 4.8% 4.9% 4.8% 4.75% 4.9% 4.9% (average)

Unemployment 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.7% (fourth quarter)

Profit Increase 13.8% 14% 12.8% 15% 15% 14% 15% 14% (after taxes)

Business Fixed Investment 9.2% 12.5% 14.1% 13.5% 12% -- -- 12.9 Increase

Inventory Increase $10.9 $15 $9.9 $14 $11 -- -- $10 (in billions)

Savings Rate 8% 7.3% 7.6% 7.9% 7.15% -- -- 7.1%

Housing Starts 2.2 2.030 -- 2.1 2.1 -- -- 21 (in millions)

Auto Sales including imports 11.2 11.4 -- -- -- -- -- 11 (in millions)

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