Tiptoe on a Tightrope

For four years Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau ruled Canada's 28th Parliament with the confident, almost imperious air of a ringmaster. But as he faced a new Parliament last week, with his Liberal Party stripped of its fat majority by the October election, Trudeau was tiptoeing on a tightrope. Waiting in the wings, eager to bump him off his perch and form a new government, stood the Progressive Conservative Party, which has only two fewer seats than Trudeau's Liberals. Trudeau is still aloft, and could remain there for months--or he could topple in a matter of days or weeks. It depends less on his ability to withstand the Tories' attacks than on whether he gets a helping hand from a third party.

Trudeau's fate, in short, is at the mercy of Canada's socialist-minded New Democratic Party. The October election reduced the Liberal representation in the 264-member House of Commons from 146 to 109. The Progressive Conservative Party won 107 seats, the Quebec-based populist Social Credit Party took 15, and independents have two. The remaining 31 seats--and the balance of power--belong to the N.D.P., led by shrewd former Labor Lawyer David Lewis. As long as the N.D.P. supports Trudeau on key votes, his government will survive and another election will be delayed.

For the time being, at least, the N.D.P. seems prepared to back Trudeau. Never rich in funds, the N.D.P. is not eager to finance another election campaign at present. Indeed, according to an N.D.P. survey, the voters themselves oppose another campaign just now. Moreover, with little chance of winning the next election, the N.D.P. may be able to achieve some of its legislative goals by forcing concessions from the friend-in-need Liberals.

Trudeau encouraged that prospect with his list of legislative intentions, which is traditionally presented at the opening of Parliament. More comprehensive than usual and reflecting a certain contriteness toward an electorate that had chastised him in October, the list included several social welfare programs (such as increased old-age pensions) that have been championed by the New Democrats. Thus Lewis found it relatively easy to pledge his support for the government until he sees how Trudeau follows through on the proposals. Exulted Liberal Strategist Allan MacEachen: "We've been given a real chance to stay on. Only an accident could derail us now."

There was no accident last week as the N.D.P. voted with the Liberals to turn back a nonconfidence motion put forward by the Progressive Conservatives. But accidents can happen. The Tories, led by Robert Stanfield, envision several circumstances that could cost the Liberals a vital vote and thus force the government's resignation. A mismanaged Liberal proposal might make it impossible for the N.D.P. to avoid voting with the Tories; a surprise maneuver by the Tories could catch the government short of members when an important vote was called; a Trudeau temper tantrum might shift the mood of the House against him.

The Liberals recognize the perils. Close associates have been warning Trudeau in recent weeks not to allow himself to be provoked into one of his legendary outbursts of profanity. In fact, the former swinger of the Western political world has at times seemed more than somewhat subdued. During the visit that Trudeau made to Britain in December, the Times of London was moved to observe: "Being Prime Minister of Canada for four years has dulled him nearly beyond recognition."

Flashes of Fire. There are still, however, flashes of the old fire. In one of his first sessions of the new Parliament, Trudeau hotly accused Tory members of trying to "divide Canada" in the election campaign--a reference to the effort by some Tories to capitalize on anti-Quebec feelings generated among English-speaking voters. But Trudeau's charge was so ill-timed and ill-tempered that it left some of his party colleagues shaking their heads in dismay. Stanfield, normally a dull public speaker, shone by comparison. When a fellow Tory heckled Trudeau about trying to change his image, Stanfield interjected with a sly allusion to government statistics on unemployment: "Oh, he's the same Prime Minister--seasonally adjusted." Even Trudeau had to chuckle at that.

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