The Job That Needs to Be Done

HOW much damage has actually been inflicted in Viet Nam during a generation of war? How much of that damage can be repaired? By what means and at what cost?

The conflicting claims of the combatants have long hampered efforts to get reliable estimates of war damage. But as the push toward reconstruction begins, this matter is receiving urgent attention from a special State Department task force headed by Assistant Secretary Marshall Green (slated soon to become Ambassador to Australia). Meanwhile, the most reliable overall damage estimate is that of Japan's Nomura Economic Research Institute, which places the reconstruction needs of both North and South Viet Nam at between $ 12 billion and $15 billion over the next ten years.

Despite the many years of warfare in South Viet Nam, physical damage in the North is actually greater because of the concentrated U.S. bombing campaigns. Most of North Viet Nam's electric-generating capacity was destroyed, its railroad lines cut and its highways disrupted. Work has only just begun on repairing the heavy damage to the docks and other port facilities in Haiphong (and removing the mines the U.S. laid there). An obvious initial task will be to clear away the rubble. For rebuilding, the basic need is money to buy bricks, concrete, tools and machinery.

North Viet Nam, which had a gross national product of $1.6 billion in 1970 ($90 per capita), suffered extensive disruption of its light industry--notably food processing (rice, sugar, fish, tea) and textiles ("bombed to pieces," in the words of a Swedish authority). Hanoi's Viet Nam News Agency claims that the machinery that was evacuated to avoid bomb damage is now being returned. The North also has an embryonic coal-mining industry, which underwent some damage, but Japan stands ready to buy 2,000,000 tons annually from the Hon Gay coal mines.

While private construction firms in the U.S. and other industrial nations are eager to join in the rebuilding--if their governments foot the bill-- Hanoi does not like the notion of foreign engineers directing such projects. It wants to do the work itself with foreign dollars, although its supply of trained manpower is not abundant. Washington's hope is a contrary one: it would like to provide the technical help and materials to get the job done, while holding the money to a minimum.

Since U.S. officials have been able to move more freely through South Viet Nam, the extent of damage there is more readily assessed. The agriculture of the South needs extensive rebuilding; nearly 1,000,000 acres of valuable riceland were abandoned during the war. Most of the 2,500-mile system of canals and dikes was similarly neglected, allowing salt water to damage cropland. Dredging sludge from the canals and restoring fertility to the fields will be a slow and expensive process, demanding both massive manpower and large amounts of fertilizer.

The U.S. estimates that it will cost about $100 million to repair South Viet Nam's public facilities. This includes the reconstruction of at least 212 destroyed bridges, gaps in the railroad lines running from Quang Tri to Saigon (about $1,000,000 should get the trains back into running condition), the repair of electric-transmission lines and rebuilding of schools and hospitals. Almost 2,000 miles of primary two-lane roads--about half of the South's total --also need repair, at a cost of nearly $500 million.

One problem shared by both North and South is that of relocating the large numbers of refugees, either by the reconstruction of their former homes or the creation of new villages. The exact number of refugees is unknown, but one estimate places the figure in the South alone at about 600,000 living in camps and another 200,000 elsewhere, many with relatives. The cost of relocation is estimated at $100 per refugee, or a total in the South of $80 million.

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