Breaking the Siege

Every day last week the electricity went off until sundown, stilling the whirling fans and air conditioners in the breathless heat. Grim-faced American officials shuttled in and out of the palace of Cambodian President Lon Nol. Battle reports proved contradictory and inconclusive. The British, Australians and Japanese evacuated their women and children. Beside the pool of the Hotel Le Phnom (the former Royal), reporters talked of the possibility of a guerrilla attack on the airport, the television station or some other suitable target to coincide with the Buddhist New Year's holiday. This was Phnom-Penh under siege. Reported TIME Correspondent Gavin Scott:

The outward signs of crisis are clear enough. The leafy green capital of Phnom-Penh, its population swelled to 1,500,000 by some 400,000 refugees from the fighting, remains cut off from most of the country. Two convoys of ships from South Viet Nam managed to slip up the Mekong River through heavy Communist gunfire (see next story). About 400 trucks carrying food supplies arrived safely from Kompong Som, on the western seaboard. The blockade has technically been broken, but it may take weeks to determine whether the Communist offensive has been turned back.

The city has enough rice to last for two months, and the capital's central market is well stocked with imported goods, fruits and vegetables. But there is only enough diesel fuel to power the city's water system for 19 days, and the electricity supply is dependent on the arrival of further convoys up the Mekong. The airlift announced by the U.S. this week is limited to JP4 jet fuel for the Cambodian air force's tiny fleet of about 20 helicopters.

The stated aim of the Communist offensive is not to overrun Phnom-Penh itself, a feat that the Communists probably could not accomplish anyway because they do not have the troops to do it. Rather the aim is to bring the war as close to the capital as possible, in the hope that civil unrest will lead to the fall of Marshal Lon Nol's regime.

Flexibility. Throughout the Communist offensive, the fighting spirit of the national army, FANK (for Forces Armees Nationales Kampochea), has steadily declined. On the other hand, the effectiveness of the 80,000-man Communist fighting force, composed of North Vietnamese, Viet Cong, Khmer Rouge and other local groups, has sharply improved. The U.S. expected that the bombing that it resumed on Feb. 9 would force the Communists to interrupt their offensive by mid-March in order to regroup. Instead they showed greater tactical flexibility than ever, cutting off the supply routes almost at will.

Washington officials believe that the Cambodian army's weakness is directly related to the government's lack of broad public support, but Marshal Lon Nol still denies that any such problem exists. His troops "are making firm resistance against the aggressors," he insists. The U.S. has already prevailed on Lon Nol to accept the Cabinet resignation of his abrasive younger brother Lon Non. Next it would like to see the President give an important post in the government to Prince Sirik Matak, a respected soldier who helped lead the 1970 coup that installed Lon Nol.

This might increase the regime's support, but Sirik Matak himself is dubious about the prospects. "The government is unpopular, and the nation is going down," he told TIME this week. "If I had responsibility in the administration or Cabinet, I would open the door to negotiations with the other side. We could discuss things."

"The real question is which side will collapse first," says an experienced Western diplomat in Phnom-Penh. "Can the Communists hold out until the rainy season in May, when U.S. airpower will become far less effective? Can FANK keep going?" The Americans are giving the Cambodians every kind of material and moral support, he adds, but "in the end you can't fight this war down to the last B-52." The war's outcome, in other words, will be determined on the ground, and by the Cambodians themselves.

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