Who's Up... ...And Who's Down

THREE in ten people who were questioned in the latest Gallup poll said that the Watergate affair made them less likely than before to vote for a Republican in next year's congressional elections. But while Watergate has generally hurt the G.O.P., it has had varying effects on individual Republicans and Democrats, pushing some up, some down. An early and therefore tentative reading of the effects on some men who have been mentioned as presidential or vice-presidential possibilities for 1976:

UP JOHN B. CONNALLY JR., 56, the newest Republican from Texas, benefits from Watergate because he chose a moment when the G.O.P. was at an ebb to switch allegiance. Even deep-dyed Republicans are saying in effect: "He came over not as an opportunist but when we really needed him."

GOVERNOR NELSON A. ROCKEFELLER, 64, stands to gain by his remoteness from Watergate. Likely to win an unprecedented fifth term as Governor of New York, Rocky may have a modest chance of stopping Connally--and Republican Conservatives Spiro Agnew and Ronald Reagan--provided that he can rally moderate Republicans behind him.

GOVERNOR RONALD REAGAN, 62, put his foot in his mouth by saying that the Watergate conspirators were not "criminals at heart," but his geographical and political distance from the scandal leaves him otherwise untainted. Now disavowing any intention to run for a third term in California next year, he will remain in the public eye by speaking and fund raising for Republican candidates in 1974.

SENATOR CHARLES PERCY, 53, of Illinois, gained points by pushing the resolution to force the Administration to name an independent Watergate prosecutor. Though Percy is regarded as a political lightweight by some Republican professionals, he has support among the party's independent liberals.

SENATOR HOWARD H. BAKER JR., 47, a serious and hard-working Republican from Tennessee, benefits from having been named co-chairman of the select committee investigating Watergate. Baker, a moderate conservative, has been urging a "no holds barred" probe. He is certain to get more (and favorable) public exposure when televised hearings begin.

SENATOR LOWELL P. WEICKER JR., 42, another member of the select committee, was the first Republican to demand--on what seemed like thin evidence--that H.R. Haldeman resign as chief of the White House staff. As a result, he was instantly in trouble with G.O.P. regulars in Connecticut. Now that he has been vindicated, his home-state stance has improved, and he might emerge as a candidate for Vice President in 1976.

SENATOR HENRY M. JACKSON, 60, of Washington, despite a poor showing in last year's presidential primaries, rises as the conservative Democrat who hopes to draw the party away from George McGovern's ultraliberals. In '76 Democrats will be seeking a candidate who is politically "clean," as Jackson is. He is also one of the most powerful Senators, holding several key committee assignments.

SENATOR EDMUND S. MUSKIE, 59, goes up slightly on a sympathy vote, for having been the target of Republican political saboteurs who worked to disrupt his 1972 primary campaign and promote McGovern as a weaker opponent for Nixon.

DOWN

VICE PRESIDENT SPIRO AGNEW, 54, is as incapable of dissociating himself from the Nixon Administration's misdeeds --though he is trying--as Hubert Humphrey was of detaching himself from Lyndon Johnson's Viet Nam policy in 1968. Nixon is cool to Agnew, and Bob Haldeman and John Ehrlichman disliked him, but Agnew presented himself to the public as a 200% rooter for the team. That will be hard to live down.

SENATOR ROBERT DOLE, 49, suffers because of the position he held when scandal erupted: chairman of the Republican National Committee. He also joined the chorus of protest against early press exposes of Watergate. But during the campaign he fought many a gallant losing battle with the Committee for the Re-Election of the President; in fact it was he who dubbed it CREEP. For his interference, he was shoved out of important campaign work and dumped from his National Committee office after the election.

GEORGE BUSH, 48, successor to Dole, is an attractive politician who was out of politics (as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.) when Watergate burst, but is hurt because he is party chairman now. He might recoup by returning to Texas to run for the governorship in 1974.

SENATOR JAMES BUCKLEY, 50, an engaging conservative from New York, has had his vice-presidential chances at least slightly set back. Though he supported the Percy resolution calling for an independent prosecutor, it was a tardy conversion. Previously, he had been defending Nixon against charges of scandal.

SENATOR WILLIAM E. BROCK III, 42, once an enticing prospect for conservative Republicans, can forget vice-presidential aspirations for a while. In a roundabout defense of Watergate, he said that surveillance and infiltration tactics had been "extensively used in Tennessee politics." He is charged in a class-action suit with having slandered 1972 Democratic campaigners in Tennessee.

SENATOR EDWARD M. KENNEDY, 41, may well be in trouble because the Republicans will strive to produce a Mr. Clean in 1976. If they do so, the signs of moral laxity in Kennedy's past--particularly at Chappaquiddick--will count heavily against him.

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