Oh, Jesus, Will It Work?

There was a time when a June election in Ulster would have been a kind of summer festival, exuberant with fifes and drums and oratorical flourish. The long months of gunfire and explosions have made that impossible. The streets of Belfast are devoid of parades and rallies; they are patrolled by British armored troop carriers, the soldiers alert for snipers. Voters generally remain in the relative safety of their homes, watching the campaign on television.

It is with barely excessive hyperbole, though, that ex-Prime Minister Brian Faulkner has called this week's election "the most crucial in Northern Ireland's history." When voters go to the polls to elect a new legislative body for Ulster, it will clearly be their best, if not their last chance to curb 50 years of trial and terror and finally set the province on the road to rule by reason.

Carefully prescribed by a Britain weary of bloodshed, the election gives Ulster the opportunity to replace the Protestant-dominated Stormont Parliament, suspended 15 months ago, and to establish for the first time a legislature in which both Protestants and Catholics can share power. The new 78-seat provincial assembly will rule through committees designed to reflect various party views. Britain's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, William Whitelaw, will keep control, for the time being, of all police and security matters.

Hard-Liners. Altogether, 210 candidates are representing a total of 17 party labels. Four groups, however, merit special watching. On the Protestant side, there are the long-dominant Unionists, led by Faulkner, and the more militant Loyalists, whose leaders include such hard-liners as William ("King Billy") Craig and the Rev. Ian Paisley. On the Catholic side, there is the Social, Democratic and Labor Party. (The outlawed Provisional wing of the Irish Republican Army is not, of course, taking part in the elections; it has urged all Catholics to boycott them.) Somewhat in the middle, trying to establish a nonsectarian force for compromise, is the Alliance Party.

No single party expects to win a clear majority. Under the newly instituted proportional-representation system (which requires voters to list their preferences for all candidates), even minor groups have a chance of picking up seats. But Faulkner's Unionists should win the most, and the Catholic S.D.L.P. should capture a fair share. Though relations between these two traditional parties were bad at Stormont, there is some hope that they could work together better in the assembly. Says S.D.L.P. Leader Gerry Fitt: "We are willing to take part in any administration which will bring the violence to an end."

Not so the militant Loyalists. Convinced that the new assembly represents a British sellout of Protestant Ulster-men, the Loyalists are determined to make it fail. Speaking from the back of a Union Jack--draped truck in Portadown last week, King Billy Craig declared: "For four years now, we have had defeat after defeat, humiliation after humiliation. The only thing that is really left to lose is Ulster itself." Faulkner, in turn, has attacked the Loyalist leaders for consorting with the extremist paramilitary Ulster Defense Association. Craig and Paisley, he says, have "bloodstains on their joint program."

Despite all the violence--another 14 people killed in the past fortnight--the mood of Ulster seems not to be one of despair. Says Mrs. Maureen McClure, an official Unionist candidate in North Down: "Most people today are exhausted by the carnage and destruction." Adds Paddy Devlin of the S.D.L.P.: "A man could say logically 'Oh, Jesus, it's not going to work.' But to my mind, the face of politics will never be the same after this election. Everybody is tired and wants peace. I think we're heading for better times. I feel it in my bones." These are signs, however tentative and fragile, of a yearning to end the bloody sectarian strife.

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