Leaving the Quagmire

More than six months after a truce agreement was supposed to bring peace to Indochina, fighting rages and casualties mount in South Viet Nam. In Cambodia, the government's forces seem unable to prevent gains by Khmer insurgents, who are now at the outskirts of the capital of Phnom-Penh (see box following page). On the other hand, Laos appears on the brink of a political solution that could bring it real peace for the first time since the second World War.

As usual, the fate of Viet Nam remains obscure. So bleak have the chances become for an early peace in South Viet Nam that last week 244 Canadian members of the International Commission of Control and Supervision (ICCS) of the truce withdrew and flew home. Their commander, Major General Duncan McAlpine, complained that "there is no ceasefire. It is an illusion." Indeed, by Canada's reckoning, the level of military activity has barely changed since the much heralded signing of the Paris agreement on Jan. 27. McAlpine noted that in the six months before the cease fire there was a total of 80,000 casualties on both sides; in the six months since, the casualties have been 72,000. "It's not a cease-fire," said a U.S. official, "it's a less-fire."

According to the timetable drawn up in Paris, a political agreement between the Viet Cong and the regime of South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu should have been concluded by now. Field commanders from both sides should have met, points of entry for replacement of supplies and equipment should have been designated and zones controlled by the two sides should have been delineated. None of these goals has been accomplished. Nor has the National Council of Reconciliation, charged with arranging elections, been constituted. Instead, Saigon and the Viet Cong hurl recriminations at each other.

Supposedly, the four-member ICCS should investigate such charges. From the start, however, the Poles and Hungarians, the two Communist members, appeared determined to do nothing damaging to Hanoi or the Viet Cong. Because unanimity is required for every ICCS decision, the Canadians found themselves (often along with the Indonesians, the commission's fourth member) stymied whenever they pressed for active enforcement of the truce. According to the Canadians, the Poles and Hungarians refused to approve reports, based on interrogation of North Vietnamese prisoners, that Hanoi was continuing its infiltration of men and supplies--in clear violation of the truce.

Canadian Frustration. The two Communist delegations also blocked effective field inspections of alleged violations--but did investigate some of those for which Saigon was to blame. In frustration, the Canadians withdrew. The U.S. hopes it can persuade Iran to take Canada's place, and expects no difficulty getting the consent of Hanoi, Saigon, and the Viet Cong, as required by the truce.

While peace in South Viet Nam remains as distant as it was six months ago, a different kind of settlement appears possible for Cambodia. There the Khmer insurgents have gained the initiative and now possess the ability to capture Phnom-Penh if they want--thus winning the war. The militarily and psychologically weakened Lon Nol regime has little chance of gaining any compromises from the victorious insurgents, especially with all American air support due to halt.

Compromise seems possible in Laos, where more than one decade of war has made refugees of one-third of its 3,000,000 people. The government of neutralist Prince Souvanna Phouma and representatives of his half brother Prince Souphanouvong, who leads the Hanoi-backed Pathet Lao forces, appear ready to try yet another coalition government, as they have done unsuccessfully twice before in the past 19 years. Diplomats in Vientiane report that the Pathet Lao, whose army controls 80% of Laotian territory and about one-third of its population, won most of the concessions in the draft agreement. Although Souvanna will head the new government as Premier, his half brother will become the undisputed No. 2 man as First Deputy Premier. Both the Pathet Lao and Souvanna's representatives will get five seats on the new twelve-man Cabinet, with two going to nonaligned public figures.

Most important, the agreement permits the Pathet Lao to keep one battalion and 1,000 policemen in Vientiane, the country's administrative center, and two companies and 500 policemen in Luang Prabang, the royal capital, giving it significant muscle in both important cities.

If the Laotian agreement is formally signed later this month, as expected, the U.S. will have 60 days to withdraw its hundreds of military "advisers" and CIA agents, who have directed and paid both Lao and Thai mercenaries in their unsuccessful efforts to stem the Pathet Lao advances. The agreement, however, does not specifically mention the estimated 49,000 North Vietnamese troops currently in Laos.

Theoretically, a coalition government in Laos and an insurgent victory in Cambodia could bring peace to those two nations. But no such prospect is in store for Viet Nam. Resolution of the war in Cambodia and Laos would only give Hanoi's forces unchallenged use of the two countries as staging areas for future attacks against South Viet Nam. Thieu has already warned that a Communist-controlled Cambodia would be intolerable, hinting that he might send South Vietnamese forces into the country. Thus the prospects of peace remain elusive indeed.

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