Soviet Breakthrough

When President Nixon and Soviet Boss Leonid Brezhnev met in Moscow last year, none of the agreements they signed were hailed more than those limiting strategic nuclear weapons. In 2 1/2 years of painstaking negotiations, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union had made concessions. Last week, it seemed, the U.S. may have given more than it got. Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger announced that the Russians had scored a major breakthrough in weapons technology by successfully testing "in recent weeks" missiles with multiple warheads that could be aimed at separate targets. The Soviet advance has clearly put in jeopardy the agreements signed by Nixon as a result of the first stage of the Strategic Arms Limitations Talks (SALT I). Under those agreements, both the U.S. and Russia pledged to limit missile launchers. But the Russians were allowed a bigger cutoff number (2,358 to the U.S.'s 1,710), because only the U.S.

possessed multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVS), some of which are loaded with 14 warheads.

In short, the U.S. agreed to give the Soviets an advantage in quantity because it had an edge in quality.

It has long been common knowledge that Russia was eager--and capable--of catching up to the U.S. in the sophisticated field of MIRVS. Indeed, some critics of SALT I argued that the agreements should include controls of such weapons. The U.S. made a stab at discussing them then, but the Russians were unreceptive. The issue became pre-eminent in the current round of SALT II, which got under way last November. But, Schlesinger conceded, the prospects for agreement to control MIRVS have now "deteriorated sadly."

Although the Soviets have successfully tested their own MlRVs, it will still take time, as well as huge sums of money, to manufacture them in significant numbers. Schlesinger estimates that the Russians will not be able to match the U.S. inventory before the mid-1980s.

But while the Soviets are catching up in quality of warheads, the U.S. is prevented by the SALT I agreements from making any offsetting gains. Unless, that is, the U.S. can in some way adjust the effect of the SALT I interim agreement, which runs for another four years.

Schlesinger indicated that the U.S.

would try to renegotiate. "The initial basis of SALT I must be reassessed," he said. "We must have balanced quality.

As they [the Russians] close the qualitative gap, the quantitative advantage must be reduced." Some peppery exchanges seem to be ahead for SALT II.

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