The People's Verdict Is In

Even after President Nixon's recent TV address and press conference, most Americans still believe that he is not telling the complete truth about Watergate. Almost half (45%) actually believe that Nixon knew in advance about the bugging of Democratic National Headquarters last summer--an astonishing attitude, considering the lack of evidence on this point. Though they think that he was personally involved in what most of them regard as "a dangerous attempt to undermine the Constitution and our democratic process," Americans by and large do not want him to leave the presidency. They have three main reasons for that stand: 1) they tend to blame the men around Nixon more than the President for creating the scandal; 2) they would be "dissatisfied" with Vice President Spiro Agnew as a replacement; and 3) they fear the probable impact, both at home and abroad, of the President's impeachment or his resignation.

Those are among the major conclusions of a special survey on Watergate conducted for TIME by Daniel Yankelovich. Inc. Perhaps the deepest-probing national study yet made on citizens' attitudes toward Watergate, the Yankelovich poll reached a scientifically selected national sample of 1,240 adults by telephone during two periods: the week before Nixon's Aug. 15 television speech and the week after it. An additional smaller sampling of other citizens was taken after his Aug. 22 press conference.

The poll's general consistency over the three periods seems to confirm that the public verdict is already in, and it is not likely to change. That verdict is, in effect, that the President is guilty of personal complicity in Watergate. But partly because they see no practical way of doing something about the President's actions without damaging the country, a majority (54%) of those polled say that they are becoming bored by the subject of Watergate.

Public Fatigue. This evidence of public fatigue might seem to support Nixon's recent strategy for dealing with Watergate. He has argued that the matter should now be left to the courts, so that his Administration can get on with pressing national problems. Some elements of Nixon's emerging strategy, however, seem to be unproductive and could even backfire. The poll discloses that 57% of the people questioned reject Nixon's suggestion that the Watergate investigation is an attempt by some politicians and members of the press to "get the President" (35% agree and 8% are unsure). White House criticism of the Ervin committee runs up against the finding that two-thirds of the people regard that committee as having functioned in a "fair and open-minded" manner. Almost two-thirds of those polled criticize Nixon's attempt to withhold the tapes of his Watergate-related conversations from the committee and the courts.

Overall, popular support for the President's position on Watergate is thin (see charts). Only 26% believe his repeated statements that he did not know about or take part in the coverup. Of those who had heard or read about Nixon's television speech (a significantly large 73% had done so), only 39% thought that he was telling the full truth. This figure increased by a negligible 1 % after his later press conference. The press conference did, however, provide one solid gain for Nixon: 22% of his listeners or readers said that they had greater confidence in him after it than they had had before.

The President's explanations of Watergate have corresponded closely with those of his closest former aides, John Ehrlichman and H.R. Haldeman, and in most respects with those of former Attorney General John Mitchell. Thus it is not surprising that many people believe that these men were lying too (see chart). Indeed, the percentage of people who think that Mitchell was lying increased after the Nixon press conference from 41% to 56%, despite one answer in which the President supported Mitchell's testimony. There would seem to be a paradox, however, in the fact that many also disbelieve John Dean, the President's chief accuser and the man whose testimony conflicts sharply with that of the other aides. Yet Dean's credibility is somewhat higher than that of the other major Ervin committee witnesses.

One striking Yankelovich discovery is that the public is more concerned about events peripheral to Watergate than about the break-in and bugging of the Democrats. Half the people rate that operation as "just part of politics as usual." But a majority see as "shocking" the break-in at the office of Daniel Ellsberg's psychiatrist, the suggestion that income tax audits might be used against Nixon's political opponents and--tenuously tied with Watergate--the President's use of public money to improve his homes at San Clemente and Key Biscayne. Also described more often as "shocking" than "just politics" is the Watergate coverup, including the use of campaign funds to keep the original defendants silent about the involvement of higher officials.

On the other hand, those polled viewed a number of recent political misdeeds as "routine." These included the attempts to sabotage the campaigns of Democratic presidential candidates and the evidence that the Nixon Administration gave ITT a favorable antitrust settlement in return for a $400,000 Republican Convention pledge.

Despite such signs of cynicism about the nature of U.S. politics, the public is not at all complacent about the overall Watergate scandal. Oddly, a majority (58%) say that they are "upset" about the affair, while an overwhelming 82% say that they are "disgusted" by it.

As for the basic meaning of Watergate, an impressive 77% agreed with the statement that "Watergate shows how even the privacy of ordinary people is being threatened these days." Somewhat mysteriously, 70% said that it also indicated that "big business misuses its influence and controls the country." And 67% saw Watergate as "part of a general climate of moral decay in which people feel that they can get away with anything."

No Right. The widespread public antagonism toward any invasion of privacy was also illustrated by responses to another series of questions that indicates little support for Nixon's "national security" defense of some Watergate acts. The public overwhelmingly objects to the idea that the President has the right to break into anyone's home, except in one situation: the case of a government employee who turns over classified government papers to a hostile country. Even then, only 50% believe that the President may order a breakin, while 45% disagree and 5% are unsure. The notion that the President has extraordinary powers in a case like that of the Pentagon papers is rejected by 62% of the people.

Americans overwhelmingly (66%) agreed that Nixon's ability to govern the U.S. has been seriously damaged by Watergate, although this figure dropped significantly to 53% after the President's press conference, which gave many a feeling that he was beginning to regain control of the Government. Even more people feel, however, that either the impeachment or resignation of the President would only make matters worse. Seventy-two percent think that this would seriously damage U.S. relations abroad; 65% believe that impeachment would "tear the country apart"; and 58% foresee a major economic crisis if the President quits or is forced out of office. Only 25% expect the nation would be better off if Nixon were removed.

The belief that Nixon should stay in office is based partly on the feeling of 55% of the public that he is still "the best man for the office." Even more (61 %) believe that his abilities are needed to deal with the Russians and the Chinese. And then, of course, there is the problem of his successor. Perhaps influenced by the fact that the investigation of Vice President Agnew was revealed just before the Yankelovich polling began, only 25% of the interviewees said that they would be "satisfied" with Agnew as President if Nixon were to leave office; 53% said that they would be "dissatisfied."

If it were possible to hold a new election, a replay of the controversial 1972 presidential race would be close. The poll discloses that 40% of the voters would go along with Nixon, while 38% would vote for George McGovern; the rest are uncertain or would vote for neither. Most of McGovern's gains since the last election would come from Independents; one out of three of them would switch to the Democratic Senator. Only 17% of the Democrats who voted for Nixon would now stray from that 1972 stand. Overall, Watergate would be a sharp political advantage for the Democrats. A potentially decisive 19% of the voters polled say that they are more likely to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976 than they were before the scandal, and only 4% are less likely to do so.

While any Republican presidential candidate apparently will have a rougher time in 1976 because of Watergate, no potential nominee now holds a significant lead. The affair, however, has propelled Senator Howard Baker, a member of the Ervin committee, into national prominence. The poll finds that the following Republicans are now rated as their first choice by voters in a surprisingly even split:

Howard Baker 14%

Charles Percy 14%

Ronald Reagan 14%

JohnConnally 13%

Nelson Rockefeller 10%

Spiro Agnew 10%

Unsure, or none of these 26%

Apart from its political impact, Watergate has also affected public attitudes toward various public institutions, mostly in a damaging way. Not surprisingly, Nixon's presidency has been hurt the most, with almost half (49%) of the people now having "less faith" in the office than they had before, while 3% somehow have "more faith" in it. Other institutions that have sustained notable net losses in public confidence include business and industry (28%), the IRS (23%), the CIA (23%), the FBI (21%), the Justice Department (17%). Mysteriously, the courts also lose (13%), as does Congress (8%). The only institution to show a gain in public trust is the press, up 5%.

The poll's findings show a general mood of public despair about conditions in the nation--an attitude that has changed drastically since a Yankelovich survey in October 1972, shortly before Nixon's triumphant reelection. Then, 53% of the people had a positive feeling about the way things were progressing; now 71% feel that things are going badly. Watergate is a substantial factor in the shift, since 36% of the public now express concern about the scandal. Yet the economy worries more people (66%, a climb of 25% since 1972), while the war in Southeast Asia predictably has dropped sharply as a topic of public concern. (Crime and drugs have also dropped considerably.) Paradoxically, most Americans -- a surprising 89% -- feel that things are going well in their own personal lives. It is because of that, the Yankelovich analysts contend, that Americans have been able to view Watergate with moderation and a balanced perspective. The public even sees in Watergate some hopeful portents for the future. Fully 73% believe that the searching examination of the Watergate transgressions "will strengthen our democratic process and improve the moral standards of the country's leadership."

At the same time, the scandal has been in a sense educational, creating new interest in government and politics -- and not turning people cynically away from the system. An impressive 40% of U.S. voters declare that because of Watergate, they will be more interested, rather than less, in going to the polls in 1976.

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