The New-Model Gamble

The new car models are rolling into showrooms around the U.S. with little of the chrome-plated mystique and high public excitement of old. Annual styling changes have been de-emphasized, and attention is being focused on driving safety and clean air. But if the hoopla of other seasons is conspicuous by its absence, car makers are no less concerned about the public's reaction to their products. Detroit executives almost unanimously expect a general economic slackening to slow the industry's blistering sales pace from a record 11.7 million cars this year to 11 million or fewer in 1974. Which companies will lose the least from the predicted decline depends heavily on which new models most pique the buyers' fancy.

The biggest change this year is in product mix. Cheaply operated small cars are expected to account for perhaps 45% of all 1974 models sold, v. 40% in the model year that just ended. Though automakers earn their richest profits on big cars, they are turning out all the small autos that they can, and even so may be unable to meet demand. General Motors is spending $300 million to increase production, most of it for its compacts, Nova and Omega, and its sub-compact Vega. Ford has started a $250 million construction program to boost output of its Pintos, Comets and Mavericks. Chrysler is also expanding production facilities for its Valiant and Dart compacts. To fatten the relatively slender profits from smaller cars, manufacturers are loading the 1974 compacts with all kinds of optional items, such as luxurious vinyl and woodgrain interiors and air conditioners.

The car getting the most flamboyant promotion is the Mustang II, with which Ford President Lee lacocca hopes to repeat the personal triumph he scored by bringing out the original Mustang in 1965. After years of growing longer and heavier, the Mustang has been restyled into a car a bit smaller than the original--one of the rare cases in which Detroit has shrunk the size of an existing model. The Mustang II's recommended basic price is $2,895 (about $500 more than the 1973 Mustang), but fully equipped with options it can run to more than $4,000; lacocca sees it as the first of a new class of "luxury small cars." Ford introduced the Mustang II to the press with a glittering stage show featuring fireworks and aquatic chorus girls.

The biggest innovations at the other companies:

> General Motors moved ahead of competitors by becoming the only automaker to have radial tires made to its own specifications. GM radials will be standard equipment this year on Grand Am and Grand Prix Pontiacs and will be optional on some other models.

> Chrysler has redesigned its entire big-car line, enlarging the windows and making the bodies wider and the front ends squarer.

> American Motors' sporty intermediate Matador has been given an even more rakish look for 1974.

Many of this year's design changes--and price increases ranging from $61 to $271 a car--stem from Government-ordered improvements in safety and antipollution features. The new models have advanced emission control units, reinforced roofs and strong, impact-absorbing bumpers. Motorists will notice most the federally mandated seat-belt interlock system. Lap and shoulder belts have been combined into one harness with a lock that completes an electric circuit with the starter. If the driver or a front-seat passenger fails to lock the harness, the car will not start. (If the car does not start even after the harnesses are locked, the driver will have to get out, open the hood, and punch a button in the engine compartment to get going.)

In addition GM plans to offer later in the model year about 50,000 cars --Buicks, Oldsmobiles and Cadillacs--equipped with air bags as a $200 optional substitute for seat belts. During a collision, the bags are supposed to prevent serious injury by ejecting and popping open to quickly fill the space between driver and windshield, then instantly deflate. One drawback: if the car continues to bounce or fall, the driver could be injured after the bag loses air. Nonetheless, Ford and Chrysler also plan to offer air bags as options in 1975.

Despite expectations of waning sales, Detroit has one source of comfort. Small foreign-made cars are losing their price advantage in the U.S. as the impact of two dollar devaluations and raging worldwide inflation drive up their costs. Last week Volkswagen of America raised the average price of Beetles a hefty $325, or 14%; other foreign car makers are certain to follow suit. That happens to fit in nicely with the pricing strategy of the U.S. automakers, who are posting substantial price increases on their import-battling small cars, while adding only marginally to the prices of slower-selling larger models.

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