Stalemated Siege

"Beloved countrymen: Day by day the Phnom-Penh front becomes increasingly intense. Evacuate quickly to avoid accidents that may be caused by our raids. Come to the Liberated Zone, where your safety will be guaranteed!"

Few of the 1.5 million residents of refugee-swollen Phnom-Penh heeded this appeal last week by the clandestine radio of the Khmer Insurgents. Although artillery and rocket attacks on the Cambodian capital have already killed an estimated 340 civilians and wounded another 800 since last December, the inevitability of a rebel ground attack on the city in the near future seems far from certain. Since the current dry-season offensive began, the forces of Cambodian President Lon Nol have blunted three separate attempts by the Communist-led guerrillas to drive into the capital.

Even so, TIME'S Saigon Bureau Chief Gavin Scott last week found that many of the city's inhabitants remain afraid of terrorist raids and further shellings. Public schools were still closed to avoid the tragedy of an artillery shell's hitting a crowded classroom. Last week workmen were installing bulletproof glass in the foyer of the U.S. embassy (even as American Charge d'Affaires Thomas Enders assured the capital's populace that "the enemy is failing"). The Australian and British embassies have sandbagged their front entrances, and half of the city's 5,000 French residents have fled.

Although Insurgent troops so far have been kept out of the capital and have lost 2,000 men, they are still strong enough to maintain fierce pressure on the city. At least 74 battalions (strength: 300 men each) are deployed in the Phnom-Penh area, and they control every major highway leading into the city.

The rebel forces are supported by nearly 1,000 North Vietnamese and Viet Cong advisers and they possess an impressive arsenal. While Hanoi provides most of this equipment, some diplomats in Phnom-Penh suspect that the Insurgents have still another source of supply --government officials and military officers who make a quick profit by selling the guerrillas American ammunition.

Lon Nol's forces outnumber the rebels by a ratio of at least 4 to 1, but the government troops are poorly paid and their commanders are often corrupt. Says one American expert: "There is no leadership. The army has no idea what to do." Moreover, the quality of the government's equipment leaves a bit to be desired. As one Pentagon official puts it: "The Cambodians are fighting with the biggest museum of junk you ever saw." Their air force, for instance, consists of 20 or so pre-Korean-War-vintage T-28 fighter-bombers, a few DC-3s that have been converted into gunships, and Piper Cubs that are used for aerial reconnaissance.

Despite the shattering impact of the Insurgents' rocket and artillery assaults on Phnom-Penh, the fighting around the capital is basically deadlocked. Although Lon Nol has no realistic hope of driving the attackers away from his capital's doors, the Insurgents seem incapable of capturing the city before August, when the monsoon will force the suspension of most military activity.

The rebels may try to demoralize the capital's populace by continued artillery attacks. But the barrages could become counterproductive. Cambodian Premier Long Boret last week told Scott: "The longer the war goes on, the stronger becomes the determination to resist because of the terrorism the Communists have created."

Lon Nol and the U.S. hope that the Insurgents will eventually tire of fighting and agree to negotiate a truce. Western diplomats in Phnom-Penh, however, note no evidence that any of the guerrilla military leaders are inclined to talk. Instead, the rebels may simply pull back with the rains and resume their attack on the capital with the next dry season.

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