Unsinkable Kaku-san

By all the rules of modern politics, any Prime Minister whose popularity rating in the public opinion polls is approximately equal to his country's annual rate of inflation must surely be headed down the tube. But not Japanese Premier Kakuei Tanaka, whose Liberal Democratic Party now appears certain to win this week's upper-house elections.

As recently as two months ago, many political observers in Tokyo believed that the L.D.P., which has ruled Japan for almost 25 years, was headed for defeat or into a forced coalition with one of the minority parties. After all, Japan was, and is, suffering from the highest inflation rate (25%) of any major industrial country. At the same time, the Premier's support has plummeted from 60% in 1972 to 24% this month. Tanaka is perhaps the only democratic leader in the world who might conceivably be envious of Richard Nixon's popularity rating.

Nonetheless, the L.D.P. seems on the verge of winning again. Its surprising strength is due to two factors: 1) the failure of the main opposition groups--the Socialists, Communists and neo-Buddhist Komeito (Clean Government) Party--to get together on a common slate, mainly because of the Socialists' fear of being engulfed by the smaller but better-organized Communists, and 2) the ability of the L.D.P. to outspend its opponents on campaign rallies and posters. As the Japanese say, "Go to, yon raku" (Five wins, four loses)--meaning that a candidate who can spend 500 million yen ($1.78 million) will inevitably beat one who can spend only 400 million yen ($1.4 million).

Despite ineffectual laws that in theory restrict the size and nature of political contributions, the L.D.P. has managed to accumulate a huge war chest. Some Tokyo papers estimate that the Liberal Democrats have spent about $142 million on the election so far. The party, moreover, is receiving the open support of the great zaikai (conglomerates) for the first time. Some firms, including Mitsubishi, Hitachi and Toyota, are "sponsoring" their own L.D.P. candidates. Mitsubishi, for instance, is backing one of its employees, ex-Policeman Ken Saka, for a national seat; the company's interest in Saka is not likely to be lost on the 850,000 employees of Mitsubishi and its affiliates.

The opposition parties are understandably angry over the heavy spending of the L.D.P. under Tanaka's control. The leaders of other L.D.P. factions--including Finance Minister Takeo Fukuda, Tanaka's most powerful rival--are angry too. They fear that, by controlling the purse strings, Tanaka is strengthening his support within the party at their expense. They are well aware that the huge campaign fund has helped Tanaka to field 29 candidates from his own faction of the party--as opposed to only 16 from Fukuda's wing.

Strange Lineup. To gain the support of Japan's conservative voters, Tanaka is campaigning as the defender of ancient Japanese virtues and patriotism (TIME, June 17). At the same time, he has tried to enhance the party's box office appeal by jazzing up the ticket with a strange lineup of candidates, including a well-known television interviewer, a slapstick comedian, Actress Akiko Santo and a skin-flick producer.

As a campaigner, the irrepressible Kaku-san--as he is known to his countrymen--is still in top form. Even in Okinawa, where he is particularly unpopular, Tanaka drew some unexpected applause as he shouted in his staccato voice that if the Communists do not like Japan as it is, they can always move to Russia. Most Okinawans may still be angry about inflation and what they regard as Tokyo's historic neglect of their island. But many were forced to conclude after Tanaka's performance that whether you agree with him or not, Kaku-san is omono--really something.

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