The War Against Isabel

'Violence is nothing new in Argentine politics, but it has now reached proportions that are staggering even by local standards. Last Sunday night terrorists scattered more than 50 bombs round Buenos Aires, mainly at automobile showrooms, banks and financial companies. Two men, including a policeman who was trying to dismantle a bomb when it exploded, were killed and several others wounded. Next night, before the city had recovered from the first onslaught, 60 more bombs were planted. Earlier that day the bullet-riddled body of Atilio Lopez, a leftist labor leader and former provincial vice governor, was discovered along a highway 45 miles from the capital. The following afternoon Alejandro Bartosch, a police physician, was shot to death as he stood in front of his home.

Since Aug. 1 the toll from both left-and right-wing terrorism has averaged one death every 19 hours, and it is rising steadily. That chilling statistic is only one sign of Argentina's turmoil. Late last week two members of one of Argentina's richest families, Juan and Jorge Born, were kidnaped by left-wing guerrillas in the Buenos Aires suburb of La Lucila while a trainload of commuters looked on in horror.

Strange Bedfellows. In large part, the wave of violence is a consequence of President Juan Peron's death on July 1. When his widow Isabel succeeded him as President, her most pressing task was to maintain some semblance of unity among the diverse political factions that had supported her husband. Peronism had always been more of a personality cult than a cohesive political ideology. With El Lider gone, the danger was that his followers, who ranged from conservative businessmen to radical students and unionists, would realize what impossibly strange bedfellows they made. The inevitable splintering of the Peronist movement, whose fundamental divisions were clear long before Peron died, was briefly forestalled by a period of intense national mourning that united Argentines. As the current violence attests, the widow's "honeymoon" is now definitely over.

Earlier this month the Montoneros, a leftist guerrilla organization that helped return Peron to power in 1973, accused Isabel of "harboring imperialists and oligarchs" and then declared war on her government. Issuing their "War Communique No. 1" at a clandestine press conference, the Montoneros threatened a terrorist campaign of arson, assassination, sabotage and bombing. As a chilling reminder of their past exploits, they also released a detailed report of how they kidnaped former President Pedro Eugenic Aramburu in 1970, stuffed him into a truckload of hay, and transported him to a ranch outside Buenos Aires, where he was summarily tried, sentenced and executed. Although the Montoneros are not the sole purveyors of Argentine violence, they are widely believed to be responsible for most of the recent bombings.

Diplomatic observers are divided on whether or not the latest round of terrorism might burgeon into full-fledged civil war. The heavily armed Montoneros may have as many as 3,000 combatants plus 100,000 noncombatant supporters. Argentina's other major terrorist group, the 20,000-member (1,000 combatants) Marxist People's Revolutionary Army (E.R.P.), has also announced a policy of bombs and bullets. Last week they vowed to kill 16 army officers to avenge the deaths of 16 guerrillas following an abortive arms raid on army headquarters in Catamarca province.

Banned Meat. With the Montoneros and the E.R.P. ranged against it, the 35,000-member federal police force may well find it virtually impossible to maintain order. Both the government and the military would prefer to keep the 75,000-man Argentine army out of any anti-guerrilla campaign, rather than risk action that might broaden popular support for the Montoneros by making them seem like romantic underdogs.

Compounding Mrs. Peron's difficulties, the violence comes at a time when Argentina is suffering serious economic setbacks. Inflation, which Peron had reduced last year from an annual rate of 80% to about 20% by a comprehensive wage-price freeze, has started to accelerate again and is now close to 40%. Shortages of items from soap to cars developed when manufacturers started hoarding their merchandise rather than selling it at unprofitable frozen prices. Widespread strikes further aggravated the downward spiral. In mid-July, Argentina began losing an estimated $40 million a month in crucial sales when the European Economic Community banned all meat imports until the end of October.

The economic slump is only coincidentally tied to Mrs. Peron's accession to power, but it nevertheless handicaps the chances of her political survival. Despite the mounting challenges to her government, la Presidente seems more determined than ever to stay in power. In a dramatic balcony appearance at an outdoor rally held last Friday to boost national morale, Mrs. Peron asserted that "nothing or no one will keep me from making Argentina happy." It was telling, however, that only 60,000 of the 2.5 million workers who had been given time off to attend the rally showed up. The fear of violence apparently kept many of the others away.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.